| 摘要: | 銀行業提供經濟體系主要間接融通管道，其以較低之利率吸收資金，並以較高之利率承作放款，賺取二者利率差，所產生之利息淨收入為其主要獲利來源，因此，銀行勢必花費更多的注意力在利率差管理上。本研究即探討影響臺灣地區銀行利率差變動的因素，並發現其是否有結構性變化。
本研究依循Ho與Sunders的模型，將影響台灣地區銀行利率差因素分為法規限制、內部經營效率，以及外部競爭與總體經營環境三大類，然後分別尋找適合的經濟變數，運用迴歸分析法檢定各變數的影響程度。另本研究以易於取得之各種總體經濟變數為目標，分二階段分析篩選；首先，對迴歸方程式加以估計，分別檢視各變數之原始值、變動值、與變動率三種類型資料，對利率差的影響；第二階段乃以各該篩選出來的變數為解釋變數進行估計，觀察其原始值、變動值及其變動率三種類型資料對利率差的原始值、變動幅度及變動率的影響，以剖析本國一般銀行存放款利率差受到這三種類型總體經濟變數的影響。
本研究實證結果顯示：
一、經第一階段篩選出影響利率差的自變數計有：同業拆款利率、消費貸款額、逾期放款額與GDP成長率四項；影響原始資料變動值之變數為超額準備淨額、同業拆款利率及消費貸款額三項；另影響原始資料變動率之變數則為消費貸款額與退票率二項。
二、第二階段估計結果顯示各選出解釋變數對利率差產生正向影響的變數計有同業拆款利率及其變動額、逾期放款額、超額準備變動額、消費性貸款變動額、與退票率變動率六項；而對其產生負向影響的變數則有消費性貸款額及其變動率與GDP成長率。
Commercial banks provide direct financing to all sorts of business activities. They provide commercial loans with deposits from the public. The interest rate margin between lending and borrowing is the main source of profits for most banks. This paper examines the factors influencing the interest rate margin charged by commercial banks in Taiwan and determines their significance.
Using the interest-rate model by Ho and Saunders, we separate the factors that have influence on the interest rate margin into three categories: regulations, the efficiency of internal management, and external competition and macroeconomic environment. We then select appropriate variables and examine the variables with regression analysis. We use the readily available macroeconomic variables as our selection universe. Our two-stage screening involves (1) regressing variables to interest rate margins and (2) testing the significance of the variables used to explain interest rate margins. In the screening process, we use initial value, variation, and variation rate for both the independent and dependent variables.
Our research draws two conclusions. First, the independent variables that have influence on the interest rate margin from our first-stage screening are inter-bank rates, overall consumer credit, non-performing loans, and GDP growth rate. If variation of the interest rate margin is used as dependent variable, the independent variables are net reserve in excess, inter-bank rates, and overall consumer credit. Overall consumer credit and check bounce rate are the two independent variables if we use variation rate as the dependent variable.
Secondly, we determine that there are six independent variables that are positively related to the interest rate margin: inter-bank rates, variation of inter-bank rates, non-performing loans, variation of net reserve in excess, variation of overall consumer credit, and variation rate of check bounce rate. Overall consumer credit, variation rate of overall consumer credits, and GDP growth rate are among the independent variables that are negatively related to the interest rate margin. |
