民國91年投資於東南亞地區的廠商，其投資動機相當模糊，且由於南向政策與地主國政府之投資獎勵政策對於廠商的影響相同，因此由東南亞地區投資獎勵政策的失效也間接說明南向政策的實施已失去效力。 In this article, we use Taiwan manufacturing firms’ survey data to understand firms’ foreign direct investment (FDI) location choice. The data conducted by the Statistics Department of the Ministry of Economic Affairs in 1998 and 2003 investigates firms’ foreign direct investment determinants in 1997 and 2002. We set the MNL model as econometric model and compare the results in the two years by marginal effects. Besides, we also use Hausman test and SH test to examine the problems of IIA.
First, we find the importance of the foreign direct investment (FDI) determinants in firm-characteristics aspect and in network-relationship aspect is different between 1997 and 2002, whether in China or in Southeast Asia area. Second, the expansionary and defensive FDI motivations lead firms to invest in China in both years. Third, the defensive FDI motivation that makes firms to invest in Southeast Asia area in 1997 disappears in 2002. Fourth, Taiwan’s southward policy started in 1994 is effective in 1997, but the policy effect is gone in 2002.