這項研究是透過貿易指標對東亞區域中的十個國家的出口貿易進行分析，了解區域內貿易的情形，並結合地理資訊系統﹝G.I.S.﹞，觀察東亞貿易區塊如何形成，最後利用引力模型﹝Gravity Model﹞分析各國貿易流量的決定因素。 本研究結果顯示，在大陸龐大市場的吸引下，東亞地區國家區域內貿易不斷增加，已逐漸形成一個以中國為中心的貿易區塊。大陸本身則是本研究中唯一的例外，大陸透過自身強大的製造實力不斷向區域外拓展貿易，可看出中國大陸欲積極取代日本成為亞洲貿易領導者的情況。而東協目前對於區域內貿易的影響還是有限的，無法明顯指出東協會帶來區域內貿易的增加。 The objective of this paper is to analyse the East-Asia intra-bloc trade and to evaluate the determinants of bilateral trade flows among East-Asia countries. Examinations of export shares and spatial analysis for the ten countries during the past thirteen years, 1990 to 2002, indicate that there is an evidence for the hypothesis of the East-Asia countries developing into trade bloc. We also apply a gravity model to quantify the effects of trade flows by employing 1990-2002 annual export data for East-Asia ten countries and modify the gravity model to identify separate effects of ASEAN on intra-bloc trade. It shows that there is no indication that regionalism boosted intra-bloc trade significantly
