本研究先行介紹Chenery(1960)與Hsu(2007)之產業成長來源公式，從中了解出口擴張計算方法，並比較兩者公式異同以突顯Hsu(2007)方法之優勢。遵循二者公式來衡量1964-2004年間臺灣產業之出口擴張效果，其結果顯示整體產業(29部門)、製造業、重化工業、重化工業之中間財與資本財幾乎每年都發生出口擴張，且大多呈現上升趨勢。本文主要著重在重化工業出口擴張上，藉由重化工業出口擴張對產業成長的貢獻率來了解其重要性；並進一步探討1986年後重化工業出口擴張成功之肇因，主因為政府政策推動、國際情勢的利基、匯率升值與關稅降低使進口成本降低，以及石油煉製品業與化工原料業、電子產品業等二位碼產業的影響，其中二位碼產業的細項原因分別為台塑石化投產與IC產業所致。 This thesis attempts to explore export expansion of Taiwan heavy industry since this industry becomes the vital sector in Taiwan economy. We adopt Chenery’s (1960) and Hsu’s (2007) industry growth decompositions in order to understanding the contribution of export expansion to Taiwan economic growth. We find that the export expansions of the whole industry (29 sectors), manufacturing industry, heavy industry, and intermediate and capital goods of heavy industry occurred almost every year, and most of them are in a rising trend. Moreover, we show that the export expansion of heavy industry is the main contributor to Taiwan industry growth especially since 1986. We find that there are some reasons for the success of heavy industry, including (1) policies of the government, (2) niches of the international situation, (3) import cost reductions due to exchange rate appreciation and tariff decreases, and (4) impacts from the two-digit industries, including the petrochemical industry, the chemicals industry, and the electronics industry (More accurately, they are caused by the Formosa Plastics Group company and IC industry.).
