| 摘要: | 「進口替代」為台灣經濟發展過程中之重要階段，對於歷經此一階段過程，蓬勃興盛的資本財產業而言，贏得「螺絲王國」、「雨傘王國」等多項美稱，可謂成就非凡。
因此，本文之研究目的主為探討台灣資本財進口替代，遵循Hsu(2006)建議之Chenery和Full-Information二種不同衡量公式測定，結果發現資本財進口替代，發生於民國70、73、80(以Chenery計算)、85、90年，進而並拆解此進口替代值，顯示各年資本財進口替代皆為is-change效果所致，而各年主要貢獻之產業略有差異，再者，本研究從資本財中挑選鋼鐵業作為深入探究之對象，最終推論進口替代之可能肇因，70至80年代主要為產值大幅上升，進口下降幅度小，而各年影響進口替代產值變動之產品，大多為中鋼所生產；80年代至90年代大致為產值上升幅度小，進口下降幅度大，恰巧此時台灣鋼鐵出口至大陸金額呈逐年倍數增加。
Import Substitution is an important stage of Taiwan’s economic development. To the Capital Good Industry, it went through the process and became vigorous and prosperous, finally won many varied good reputation, such as the kingdom of the screw or the kingdom of the umbrella.
Therefore, the paper attempts to explore the topic: “Import Substitution: A Case Study of Taiwan Capital Good Industry”, we employ two kinds of different measures (Chenery and Full-Information) developed by Hsu (2006). The finding of the paper is the import substitution of Capital Good Industry, occurred in 1981, 1984, 1991 (by Chenery computation), 1996, 2001. Moreover, the global measure of import substitution can be divided into two effects－the sectoral import substitution effect and the structural effect. Above of each year, all the global measure of import substitution is the sectoral import substitution effect, but it is the different industry to contribute the effect. Finally, we select steel industry from many Capital Good industries and study it carefully. Then we deduce the possible reasons of import substitution are as follows: (1) From 1980s to 1990s, the main reason is production value rose largely and import fell small, and the steel product affect production value in each year is China Steel produce. (2) From 1990s to 2000s, the main reason is production value rose small and import fell largely, and Taiwan’s steel export to China rise multiple year by year. |
