廠商存活與退出之動態分析—以多層次傳銷產業為例

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Title:	廠商存活與退出之動態分析—以多層次傳銷產業為例
Other Titles:	Dynamic analysis of firm's survival and exit: application in multi-level marketing industry
Authors:	何思親;Ho, Szu-chin
Contributors:	淡江大學產業經濟學系碩士班莊春發;Chuang, Chun-fa
Date:	2005
Issue Date:	2010-01-11 01:16:48 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究利用存活分析法(survival analysis)中兩種模型：(1)起始值模型，(2)隨時間變動模型，探討多層次傳銷廠商存活與退出之因素。兩個模型皆以民國87年廠商為基準，觀察期間自民國87至92年之590家廠商，1913筆樣本資料，得到的結果如下: 1.起始值模型中，員工人數(N)、利潤率(π)、退貨規定(R)對廠商存活期間有正向關係。本期進入率(EN)、佣金計算方式(D1)對廠商存活期間有負向關係。 2.隨時間變動模型中，產業銷售成長率(G)、員工人數(N)、利潤率(π)、退貨規定(R)、公司舉辦活動情形(A)對廠商存活期間有正向關係。 3.起始值模型以及隨時間變動模型皆以Log-logistic分配的配適能力較佳。而且兩者之危險函數均呈倒U字型，即廠商之危險率呈現隨時間遞增，達到極值後呈現遞減的現象。 4.影響多層次傳銷廠商存活之因素中，除了廠商是否已先進入市場，擁有一定的消費群外，產業銷售成長率(G)以及廠商自身的利潤率(π)為影響廠商存活之重要因素。 5.就制度而言，我們發現退貨規定(R)與公司舉辦活動情形(A)是影響該產業存活的主要因素。而本實證研究發現佣金計算基準(V)與佣金計算方式(D1、D2)變數呈現不顯著的現象，換言之，其並非影響廠商存活長久之主要原因。此與諸多研究主題強調佣金制度設計為影響傳銷公司經營績效之重要因素有所差異。 6.在本研究中，起始值模型計算之廠商平均存活期間為3.21年(約38.54個月)，隨時間變動模型之廠商於民國87-92年間平均存活期間為2.07年(約24.79個月)，若存活期間低於此平均值，公平交易委員會可能需加強監督該公司的經營與制度運作情況。 This thesis uses two kinds of models in the survival analysis approach:(1) Initial value model and (2) Time varying covariates model. The two models are utilized to probe into the factors influencing how the multi-level marketing firms survive and withdraw from the industry. Both of the two models take the firm in year 87 as the comparing basis. Data collected from the observing period are from 590 firms in 87-92, including 1913 samples. The received results are as follows: 1.In the Initial value model, staff'' number (N), profit rate (π), and return goods(R) show a positive relation with firms’ survival period. On the contrary, Enter rate (EN), and commission calculate way (D1) in this issue have negative relations to firms’ survival period. 2.In the Time varying covariates model, the growth rate of industry''s sale (G), staff'' number (N), profit rate (π), return goods(R), and the activity held by company (A) have positive relation to firms’ survival period. 3.The empirical results show that the firm’s duration models follow approximately Log-logistic distribution.That means both hazard functions show inverted U style. That is to day, the probability of exit is increasing as the time goes by, yet, after reaching the extreme value, it declines. 4.The factors that influence the survival of the multi-level marketing, except for the firm having already entered the market in advanced, have regular consumption group. The growth rate of industry''s sale (G) and their own profit rate(π) are important factors to the firm’s survival. 5.With respect to the system, we find that return goods(R) and the activity held by company (A) are the main factors influencing the firm’s survival. Our empirical results revealed that the parameter of commission calculate value (V) and commission calculated way (D1, D2) appear to be non-significant. In other words, the factors are not the main reason to the firm’s survival. The result shows a difference from those research, which emphasize the design of commission system is an important factor to the performance management of a firm. 6.This thesis suggests that average survival period of firms calculated in Initial value model is 3.21 per years (about 38.54 months), and Time varying covariates model is 2.07 years(about 24.79 months) during 87-92 survival period. If the average is lower than this value, Fair Trade Commission might have to supervise both the management and system operation of this company strictly.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Industrial Economics] Thesis

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