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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/31800

    Title: 廠商存活與退出之動態分析—以多層次傳銷產業為例
    Other Titles: Dynamic analysis of firm's survival and exit: application in multi-level marketing industry
    Authors: 何思親;Ho, Szu-chin
    Contributors: 淡江大學產業經濟學系碩士班
    莊春發;Chuang, Chun-fa
    Date: 2005
    Issue Date: 2010-01-11 01:16:48 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究利用存活分析法(survival analysis)中兩種模型:(1)起始值模型,(2)隨時間變動模型,探討多層次傳銷廠商存活與退出之因素。兩個模型皆以民國87年廠商為基準,觀察期間自民國87至92年之590家廠商,1913筆樣本資料,得到的結果如下:
    This thesis uses two kinds of models in the survival analysis approach:(1) Initial value model and (2) Time varying covariates model. The two models are utilized to probe into the factors influencing how the multi-level marketing firms survive and withdraw from the industry. Both of the two models take the firm in year 87 as the comparing basis. Data collected from the observing period are from 590 firms in 87-92, including 1913 samples. The received results are as follows:
    1.In the Initial value model, staff'' number (N), profit rate (π), and return goods(R) show a positive relation with firms’ survival period. On the contrary, Enter rate (EN), and commission calculate way (D1) in this issue have negative relations to firms’ survival period.
    2.In the Time varying covariates model, the growth rate of industry''s sale (G), staff'' number (N), profit rate (π), return goods(R), and the activity held by company (A) have positive relation to firms’ survival period.
    3.The empirical results show that the firm’s duration models follow approximately Log-logistic distribution.That means both hazard functions show inverted U style. That is to day, the probability of exit is increasing as the time goes by, yet, after reaching the extreme value, it declines.
    4.The factors that influence the survival of the multi-level marketing, except for the firm having already entered the market in advanced, have regular consumption group. The growth rate of industry''s sale (G) and their own profit rate(π) are important factors to the firm’s survival.
    5.With respect to the system, we find that return goods(R) and the activity held by company (A) are the main factors influencing the firm’s survival. Our empirical results revealed that the parameter of commission calculate value (V) and commission calculated way (D1, D2) appear to be non-significant. In other words, the factors are not the main reason to the firm’s survival. The result shows a difference from those research, which emphasize the design of commission system is an important factor to the performance management of a firm.
    6.This thesis suggests that average survival period of firms calculated in Initial value model is 3.21 per years (about 38.54 months), and Time varying covariates model is 2.07 years(about 24.79 months) during 87-92 survival period. If the average is lower than this value, Fair Trade Commission might have to supervise both the management and system operation of this company strictly.
    Appears in Collections:[產業經濟學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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