本文先以單根檢定確定變數均為I(1)的時間序列後，利用Johansen 最大概似估計法找出一組共整合向量來代表變數長期關係，結果顯示婦女勞動參與率以及男性勞動參與率均有助於經濟成長，並且婦女勞動參與率的貢獻彈性上大於男性勞動參與率，而生育率雖不利於經濟發展但是影響程度不大。另外，本文以誤差修正模型、衝擊反應函數分析與預測誤差變異數分析來探討變數的因果關係與中短期的調整過程，結果顯示生育率為經濟成長之內生變數，男性的所得成長有助於提升生育率，生育率和婦女勞動參與率則呈現負向因果關係，並且婦女勞動參與率影響生育率的效果大於生育率影響婦女勞動參與率的效果。 The phenomenon of declining fertility rate has been observed in Taiwan, one of the newly industrialized countries. To understand the reason behind, this thesis applied cointegration methods to estimate and test the time series data on fertility choice behavior, labor efforts (female and male labor force participation) and per capita output in Taiwan, over the period from 1951-2005.
The results show that there exists a long run relationship among these four variables and both labor efforts contribute to economic growth. Even though the results indicate the rising fertility rate will deteriorate economic performance, it hasn’t become a burden yet. Also the results of employing vector error-correction models (VECM), variance decomposition and impulse functions have showed that fertility is endogenous in the system and female labor force participation is important to explain for the economic growth and declining fertility rate.
