人壽保險的兩篇研究

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Title:	人壽保險的兩篇研究
Other Titles:	Two essays on life insurance
Authors:	劉思敏;Liu, Ssu-min
Contributors:	淡江大學產業經濟學系碩士班胡登淵;Hu, Teng-yuan
Date:	2005
Issue Date:	2010-01-11 01:15:44 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本論文由兩方面研究人壽保險，第一篇對人壽保險相關數列進行單根檢定，以確認該數之性質；第二篇則探討金融發展與人壽保險需求及其他影響需求之因素間的關係。　　第一篇：Granger 和 Newbold (1974) 研究指出於迴歸模型中採非定態之時間序列，可能出現假性迴歸的問題。過去分析臺灣地區人壽保險需求之文獻多利用時間序列資料，郝充仁與周林毅 (2001) 於文中指出往昔文獻應用傳統計量方法並利用時間序列做迴歸分析時，多有假性迴歸 (spurious regression) 的困擾，為免除此困擾，吾人可進行單根檢定 (unit root test) 確認時間序列是否具有單根，若時間序列具有單根則表示其為非定態數列。但Perron (1989) 提出結構性改變的存在會造成我們誤判該時間序列有單根，故在此吾人應用Lee 和 Strazicich (2003) 提出Minimum Lagrange Multiplier (LM) 單根檢定，該檢定納入兩個結構性改變存在並可藉由資料內生地決定。最後由檢定結果發現總和個人人壽保險新契約保額、總和個人人壽保險初年度保費收入、個人人壽保險新契約價格、平均每人國民所得數列都為具有單根。　　第二篇：隨著臺灣經濟環境改善與政府放寬保險市場的管制，保險市場發展愈形蓬勃，民眾對人壽保險契約的需求也更為殷切。而近年來政府對金融市場的干預減少，促使金融市場發展更盛，增加了消費者理財選擇。金融市場發展提供人們更多元的理財標的，可能降低人們對壽險的需求，然而，隨著金融市場發展，壽險產品也更加多元化，則可能提昇人們對壽險的需求，因此有待進一步檢定與分析。鑑此，本研究將探討金融市場發展程度如何影響消費理財選擇中個人人壽保險契約一項。吾人利用Pesaran等 (2001) 發展之Bounds Testing Approach，試圖探究個人人壽保險需求與金融發展以及其它決定因素間的長期均衡關係。運用此方法可免除進行共整合檢定 (cointegration test) 前所有變數皆為整合數列的假設，因此，也就無須進行單根檢定 (unit root test) ，以免除單根檢定的檢定力 (power) 普遍不高的顧慮。資料來源主要為壽險季刊，資料期間為1982年第3季至2003年第4季，共86筆季資料。本文實證結果無法支持金融市場發展程度的增加使得個人人壽保險需求減少的假說。 Essay 1：Granger and Newbold (1974) showed that when nonstationary time series are used in a regression model this may cause spurious regression. Hao and Cuou (2001) proposed that the literatures of the demand for life insurance in Taiwan which use time series data have spurious regression problem. To solve the problem, one should detect the time series whether it contains a unit root or not. But Perron (1989) showed the failure to allow for a structural break leads to a bias. Hence, this study use the endogenous two-break LM unit root test derived in Lee and Strazicich (2003). Finally, the empirical results show that personal life insurance coverage of new contracts, personal life insurance premium income, the price of life insurance and per capita national income are with unit roots. Essay 2：The insurance market in Taiwan grows rapidly during the past decade because of the economic growth and less regulation governing the market. The financial market booms in recent years as well and the innovation of various financial products provides diverse channels of investment. The life insurance may become one of the components of portfolio. This study explores whether the financial development affects the consumption of life insurance. The development of financial market provides various choices of investment for consumers, and this may decrease consumers’ demand for life insurance. With the development of financial market, various kinds of life insurance products, nonetheless, appear for diverse needs, and this may increase consumers’ demand for life insurance. This study, hence, tests the relation between consumers’ demand for life insurance and the financial development. It uses the bounds testing approaches developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to analyze the level relationship between the demand for personal life insurance and the financial development and other demographic and economic determinants in Taiwan. It can be applied irrespective of whether the regressors are I(0), I(1) or mutually integrated, and this avoids carrying out unit root tests which are complained about the low power. The time-series data are collected from various issues of Life Insurance Quarterly and span over the period from 1982 Q3 to 2003 Q4. The evidence can’t support the hypothesis that the development of financial market decreases consumers’ demand for life insurance.
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