一、關卡效應在台灣市場之效果並不明顯。 二、僅有「電子類指數」、「台股電子指數期貨」、「工業平均指數」等三種指數顯示出「略具」有呈現支撐區、壓力區的關卡效應。 三、經本研究實證發現，現貨與期貨市場的比較，期貨市場的百點整數關卡效應並不比現貨市場還要明顯。 四、由於十種指數中，並無任何一種指數全然強力支持百點整數關卡效應的存在，故依據效率市場假說（EMH），無法說明台灣的市場是不具效率的。 The meaning of “INDEX” to the investors is measuring the changes of their asset prices. Besides, when it’s jumping to a certain value, it can be the sentiment signal for judging the status of market as a bull or bear. The commentaries of financial market analysts frequently imply the certain values of widely followed asset prices and aggregate market indices hold special significance for market participants. When indices attain certain price level, the investors always have extra expectation for earning excess return. The index level of sentiment-induced price is called “price barriers.”
The study tests ten kinds of indices in Taiwan’s Stock and Futures Market to examine whether the price barriers exist. Through the study’s tests, I hope to observe the “support level” and “resistance level” when the indices attain the levels at multiples of 100. By comparing the markets of stock and futures, I hope to know the “price barriers effect” is more obvious in futures market than in stock market. Finally, according to the EMH issued by Fama in 1970, we know that when the market is efficient, the “price barriers effect” will not exist.
The following is the study’s empirical results: 1.The “price barriers effect” isn’t obvious in Taiwan’s markets of stock and futures. 2.Only three kinds of the ten indices can show the slightly price barriers effect. 3.The “price barriers effect” in futures market is no more evident than in stock market. 4.Due to the lack of “price barriers effect”, we can’t indicate the market in Taiwan is inefficient.
