| Abstract: | 本研究係探討中國企業於A股及香港H股兩地均上市公司，上市後蜜月期、短、中期股價報酬率分析，何者較具優勢。研究期間為1999年4月1日起至2008年6月30日止，於香港H股上市且亦於中國A股已上市之企業為研究對象。運用事件研究法，檢視H股或A股股價報酬何者較具優勢，提供籌資者與投資者做為投資參考，實證結果如下：
一、依樣本公司IPO後短、中、長期股價報酬率分析，研究結果發現，短期報酬A股具優勢，但長期報酬H股則具報酬穩定成長之優勢。
二、以產業別比較：以長期報酬成長率分析，結果顯示，香港投資者較偏好銀行保險類股，大陸投資者則較偏好交通運輸類股。
三、樣本公司之主辦承銷商皆為知名券商，知名券商之聲譽與投資者信任度正相關。
四、樣本公司若為主要指數成份股，代表其成交量與股價與市場指數成正相關，故成份股常為投資者首選標的。
五、樣本公司於A股上市時間有79%是在2005年8月以後，當時人民幣對美金匯率開始升值，境外投資者陸續匯入資金，境內游資充沛，大陸證券市場開始走大多頭時期，截至本研究期間內，股價正報酬明顯。
六、SARS疫情期間，年報酬率呈顯負數，跨過期間則報酬率回復正常水準。此結果顯示，特別事件發生時，對於股價影響勢必，但是事件終究會過去，短期間會對報酬產生影響，長期來說還是會回歸正常應有之報酬。
This study investigate the Chinese industry in the A-share and Hong Kong H-share listed companies of two places, which one have the advantage after stock price rate of returns analysis during the market honeymoon, short-term, and long-term. The study was from April 1, 1999 until June 30, 2008 with industry that had listed on Hong Kong H-share and been also already listed in the Chinese A-share was the research object.
Use the Incident Study, it relatively has the advantage that what look over H-shares or the A-share stock price remuneration, and offers fund-raiser and investor to do it for the investment reference. The result is as follows:
First, according to our company IPO analysis for short, middle, and long-term stock price rate of returns, the result of study finds, the short-term remuneration A-share has advantages, but the long-term remuneration H-share has advantage that remuneration grows up steadily.
Second, industries comparison: after analyze with the rate of increase of the long-term remuneration, the result shows, Hong Kong investors relatively have a partiality for the banking insurance of stock. China investors relatively have a partiality for the transportation of stock.
Third, the sample hosts distributors are famous securities company. The reputations of famous securities company and investors’ trust have correlation with each other.
Fourth, the sample like main index composition stock, representing its trading volume and stock price and market index becomes positive correlation, so the composition stock is often investor''s first-selected target.
Fifth, the sample is listed on A-share is mostly after the 2005.August. RMB began to appreciate to the exchange rate of U.S. dollar at that time, external investors channeled into the fund successively, and domestic idle fund was plentiful. China security market began to have good market period. During the research, the positive remuneration of the stock price is obvious.
Sixth, during SARS epidemic situation, the annual rate of returns shows the negative number, the rate of returns replies the normal level while striding.This result shows, when the special incident happens, the stock price certainly will be influenced, but the incident will go over eventually. A short-term will exert an influence to remuneration; however, it can come back normal remuneration in a long-term. |
