淡江大學機構典藏:Item 987654321/31675
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    题名: 台指期貨與摩台指期貨到期日效應日內資料之研究
    其它题名: Expiration effect of Taiwan index futures and MSCI Taiwan futures: an intraday study
    作者: 江文嘉;Chiang, Wen-chia
    贡献者: 淡江大學財務金融學系碩士班
    謝文良;Hsieh, Wen-liang
    日期: 2005
    上传时间: 2010-01-11 01:07:19 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文根據Chow, Haynes & Zhang (2003)之t-test與F-test檢定方法，與Stoll & Whaley (1987)之報酬反轉模型，探討台指期貨與摩台指期貨到期對現貨價格變化之各種影響及產生之現象。

    　　本研究獲得幾項重要的結論如下所示：
    1.　就整體市場而言，台指期與摩台指期到期時皆會有異常的平均報酬產生，但並非發生在到期日當天，而是在到期前二天即已有異常的平均報酬產生。且在到期期間台指期與摩台指期也都會對現貨價格產生向下的壓力。

    2.　台指期貨到期時會使現貨市場在到期前二天即產生價格反轉的現象，且本沒有的價格反轉現象是因台灣期交所改變最後結算價的計算方式而產生；而摩台指期貨在三個到期期間則都沒有顯著的價格反轉現象產生。

    3.　台指期貨與摩台指期貨之個別合約價格波動性之檢測，在到期前二天就已有合約有異常的價格波動性，且很少有合約會在到期日、到期前一日及到期前二日都有顯著的價格波動產生；此外也不會整個交易日都有價格的異常波動性產生，而是可能集中發生在開盤頭一小時或是收盤前一小時而已。
    This paper analyzes the impacts of the maturity of Taiwan Index Futures and MSCI Taiwan Futures to the spot prices. The statistic method used here are t-test and F-test, which are also used by Chow, Haynes & Zhang (2003). In addition, price reversal model introduced by Stoll & Whaley (1987) is used to observe the impacts.
    Important findings are summarized as follows:
    1. There are abnormal returns for both Taiwan Index Futures contracts and MSCI Taiwan Futures two days prior to the maturity but not on the expiration day. Also, both index futures put downward press on the spot prices at maturity of the contracts.
    2. Price reversal occurs on the spot market two days prior to he expiration of Taiwan Index Futures. We find the significant reversal effect after the exchange alters the rule for determining settlement price. But no significant price-reversed occurs during the three-day expiration period of MSCI Taiwan index futures.
    3. When focusing on the price volatility of individual contract, some contracts show extraordinary volatility two days prior to the maturity. However, abnormal variation mostly occurs in the first hour of the opening or the last hour of the closing surrounding contract expiration. Abnormal variation does not span the entire two-day range of expiration period.
    显示于类别:[財務金融學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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