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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/31570


    Title: 美國與台灣央行貨幣政策行為之探討─以多重結構性轉變模型為例
    Other Titles: A investigation of the monetary policies of U.S. and Taiwan - a multiple structural change approach
    Authors: 郭耀升;Kuo, Yao-sheng
    Contributors: 淡江大學財務金融學系碩士班
    黃河泉;Huang, Ho-chuan
    Date: 2005
    Issue Date: 2010-01-11 00:58:04 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究利用台灣中央銀行重貼現率、美國聯邦基金利率、通貨膨脹率、國內生產毛額、失業率等資料,以簡單迴歸模型以及多重結構性轉變模型來進行實證,對美國以及台灣央行的貨幣政策行為進行探討。

    實證結果證明2個國家的貨幣政策確實存在著結構性轉變點,因此使用多重結構性轉變模型所估計出來的結果較簡單迴歸模型佳。此外,本研究發現美國在雷根總統主政時期,由於政府政策的關係,失業率變數的係數與聯邦資金利率呈現顯著正相關。本研究亦發現台灣在1984年至1992年之間發生了停滯性通貨膨脹現象,導致央行為了打擊通貨膨脹而放棄了經濟成長目標。

    此外,在比較同期間美國與台灣2個國家的結構轉變點時,可以發現台灣的2個結構性轉變點均落後美國,且2國的結構性轉變點發生的期間是相近的,歸咎其原因,由於過去台灣對美國的貿易依存度非常高,造成美國對台灣的總體經濟變數影響性非常大,故結構性轉變點相近。
    In this study, I employ the multiple structural change approach of Bai and Perron (2003) to investigate the monetary policy reaction functions of U.S. and Taiwan. Empirical results indicate overwhelming evidence in support of structural breaks in both countries. Moreover, in general, the monetary authorities in both countries adopt countercyclical policies in order to curb high inflation and promote economic growth rate. Furthermore, because of President Reagan’s special monetary policy, we find that there was a positive relationship between the unemployment rate and the federal fund rate in the U.S. I also find that from 1984 to 1992 the stagflation happened in Taiwan and the monetary authority sacrificed the economic growth for curbing inflation.
    Appears in Collections:[財務金融學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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