English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 49199/83641 (59%)
造訪人次 : 7094575      線上人數 : 66
RC Version 7.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library & TKU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧:
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號",以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋,建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位,可獲得較完整資料
  • 進階搜尋
    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/31557


    題名: 對台股開盤價報酬領先因子之探討
    其他題名: The analysis of leading factors for open price of the Taiwan capitalization weighted stock index
    作者: 王洪維;Wang, Hung-wei
    貢獻者: 淡江大學財務金融學系碩士班
    聶建中;Neih, Chien-chung
    日期: 2005
    上傳時間: 2010-01-11 00:56:01 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本研究資料選取以2000年1月4日至2003年8月29日,計881筆日資料。運用多項時間序列方法,深入探討對於台股大盤而言,究竟是美股S&P 500現貨指數收盤價影響開盤價較鉅,還是台股現貨指數收盤價或期貨收盤價之報酬率領先台股現貨開盤報酬率趨勢較鉅?對與台股電子類股而言比較究竟是美股NASDAQ現貨指數收盤價影響電子類股指數開盤價較鉅,還是台股電子類股現貨收盤價或電子期貨指數之報酬率領先台股電子類股指數現貨開盤趨勢較鉅?研究方法分別使用四種傳統單根檢定法:(KPSS、DF-GLS、ERS、NP)與Zivot and Andrew(1992)考慮結構性變化之單根檢定法判定資料是否呈定態,再者利用Johansen(1988, 1990, 1994)最大概似法及Gregory and Hansen(1996)考慮結構性變化之共整合檢定法,進行變數間之長期均衡共整測試;另運用Granger 因果關係檢定,檢測各指數報酬率與台股、電子類指數開盤價報酬率之“領先-落後”關係。而各指數報酬率與台股、電子類指數開盤價報酬率之短期衝擊與波動,將以一般化向量自我迴歸模型之衝擊反應函數及變異數分解來進行其間之短期動態互動分析。
    研究結論發現,首先利用傳統單根檢定,得知所有變數皆有I(1)與I(0)不一致的現象,唯有在美國S&P 500現貨收盤價之報酬率上有傾向I(1)的狀態,為解決此一問題,當考慮結構性變化之ZA單根檢定法,所有變數皆會為I(1)序列,呈現單根,正好克服傳統單根檢定之矛盾情形,表示各變數經由一次差分皆達定態。各指數報酬率與台股指數開盤價報酬率走勢存在著一個長期均衡的共移關係但與電子類指數開盤價報酬率卻無長期均衡的共移關係。進一步運用考慮結構性變化之GH共整合檢定,發現台股與電子類股開盤價報酬率各變數間,長期而言會達均衡,短期則是呈現隨機漫步的情形。另由因果檢定得知:台股開盤價報酬率會受到台灣期貨市場收盤指數之報酬率與美國S&P 500現貨收盤價之報酬率的影響;電子類股開盤價報酬率方面,則只會被台股電子指數期貨收盤價之報酬率影響。另外,在變數間短期衝擊之衝擊反應圖中,台股期貨指數與美國S&P 500現貨,均會對台灣加權股價指數開盤價報酬率有所衝擊,在兩者之中又以台指期較美國S&P 500,有較大的衝擊,再者,台股電子期與美國NASDAQ現貨,對於台灣電子類股指數開盤價報酬率,也皆有所衝擊,其衝擊效果也以台股電子期影響較大。而由預測變異數分解的結果得知不論是台股大盤或電子類股,其一般化預測誤差變異數分解之結論正好應證了一般化衝擊反應分析之發現。
    This paper selects data from JAN.4th, 2000 to AUG.29th, 2003, total 881 daily data. Employing the time series techniques, investigating S&P 500 stock index close price、Taiwan futures or spot stock index close price which have significant leading affect for Taiwan stock index open price. At the same time , investigating NASDAQ stock index close price、Taiwan election futures or spot stock index close price which have significant leading affect for Taiwan election stock index open price. Employing study methods including, four traditional unit root tests :(KPSS、DF-GLS、ERS、NP) and Zivot and Andrew(1992)unit root with structure break to test date whether or not display stationarity. Then we use Johansen(1988, 1990, 1994) cointegration test and Gregory and Hansen(1996) cointegration test with structure break to show every variables whether have long term relationships. On the other hand, by use of Granger-causality test to display among variables whether have lead-lag relationships. Finally, this paper will use general vector autoregression model including general impulse response function and general variance decomposition to investigate all variables with Taiwan stock index open price and Taiwan election stock index open price to understand short run dynamic analysis.
    For this study we can conclude below: first, we can find that from the traditional unit root tests all variables have inconsistency situation of I(1) and I(0),except for S&P 500 sock index close price. To solving this problem, while we use ZA unit root test with structure break, all variables show I(1).We can evident that all variables with stationatity. The results of Johansen cointegration test indicate that all variables with Taiwan stock index open price are considered cointegrated with one cointegrating vector.But when all variables with Taiwan election stock index open price are considered cointegrated with no cointegrating vector. Further, when using GH cointegration test with structure break to show every variables with Taiwan stock index open price or Taiwan election stock index open price have long term relationships and in the short run to display random walk situations. The results of Granger causality test significantly show that Taiwan stock index open price was led by Taiwan futures stock index close price and S&P 500 stock index close price; in the other hand about Taiwan election stock index open price was only led by Taiwan election futures stock index close price. Moreover, in the general impulse response function, we could understand that Taiwan stock index open price was impulsed by Taiwan futures stock index close price and S&P 500 stock index close price, which have more effect in Taiwan futures stock index close price than in S&P 500 stock index close price; For election, Taiwan election stock index open price was impulsed by Taiwan election futures stock index close price and NASDAQ stock index close price, which have more effect in Taiwan election futures stock index close price than in NASDAQ stock index close price, too. Finally, in the variance decomposition, we conclude that the same results of general impulse response function.
    顯示於類別:[財務金融學系暨研究所] 學位論文

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 大小格式瀏覽次數
    0KbUnknown284檢視/開啟

    在機構典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.

    TAIR相關文章

    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library & TKU Library IR teams. Copyright ©   - 回饋