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    題名: 原油現貨對高敏感性原油相關產業之連動性影響
    其他題名: Impacts of oil spot on the co-movements across oil sensitive industries
    作者: 鄒易凭;Tzou, Yi-pin
    貢獻者: 淡江大學財務金融學系碩士班
    李命志;Lee, Ming-chih
    關鍵詞: 原油敏感性原油產業;ARJI;厚尾分配;門檻;Oil sensitive oil industries;ARJI Model;heavy-tailed distribution;Threshold
    日期: 2007
    上傳時間: 2010-01-11 00:49:42 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 原油價格的變動對於總體經濟有重大的影響,亦對其他的經濟體產生影響。且對於原油相關產業、高敏感性原油運輸產業、原油密集度高的製造業有更直接的影響。有鑑於此,本文了解原油現貨與高敏感性原油相關產業間的相關性,進一步探討原油現貨於高報酬及低報酬時間,敏感性產業之波動動態關係。
    實證結果發現當現貨價格越低時對於探勘、採集等上游產業有正向影響,而運輸及航空產業中,因對於原油的需求量大,長期須要原油才得以使產業運作,故對於原油價格的變化做好了規避原油價格波動的風險,因此不論在原油現貨價格高、低報酬時對於運輸及航空產業股價指數報酬無顯著影響。高敏感性原油相關產業股價指數報酬率均存在著異常資訊所造成瞬時的跳躍行為與跳躍頻率是因時而異,且跳躍過程所引發的變異是不可忽視的重要因素。而受到異常負面消息的衝擊反應較為強烈。
      此外,利用一般化衝擊反應函數分析探討原油現貨高、低報酬對各高敏感性產業股價指數報酬衝擊發現Nasdaq運輸股價指數報酬較具獨立性的特性。因此,原油探勘、生產、提煉、與運輸業、航空業等高敏感性之相關產業及投資者應考慮原油現貨價格變動對其所造成的影響,以提供投資者及相關產業決策者進行投資避險的最適決策參考。
    The change of crude oil price has a great influence on all economies, also exert an influence on other economies. Other relevant industries, high oil sensitive transportation industries, and oil intensive manufacturing industries have more direct influences. In view of this, the fluctuation of crude oil spot price correlates with high oil sensitive industries, and integrates between high returns and low returns. In the oil price, the dynamic relation of sensitive industries. Empirical results show that the lower oil price has positive effects in prospecting industries. Airlines and transportation industries must constantly purchase oil for a long period of time in order to keep operating, hence they have already avoid the oil price volatility risk. High oil sensitive industries stock indices returns jump intensity and frequency are all time variant.
    In addition, applying impulse response function to examine high and low returns of oil spots, which indicates that Nasdaq transportation stock indices has an independent character. For this reason, oil sensitive industries and investors must consider oil price variation to relevant industries effect, in order to offer policymakers to make appropriate decisions.
    顯示於類別:[財務金融學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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