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    Title: 不同交易人的期貨交易活動對標的資產的資訊效果
    Other Titles: The empirical study of singals from reportable positions in Taiwan's future markets.
    Authors: 陳斌宇;Chen, Pin-yu
    Contributors: 淡江大學財務金融學系碩士在職專班
    林景春;Lin, Gin-chung
    Keywords: 機構交易人;三大法人;外資;投信;自營商;Options;Open Interests;volume
    Date: 2009
    Issue Date: 2010-01-11 00:47:02 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究將利用EOS理論(1998)中所提之方向性交易量之概念為基礎,並考慮市場內交易人結構因素,檢視EOS模型的方向性假設是否會因不同類交易人而異。實證結果如下:
    1.在移動同期標的期貨價格變動上,非三大法人的期貨交易量和未平倉量皆為反向影響,不符合EOS理論方向假設。
    2.就預測未來標的期貨指數變動的顯著性上,各類交易人的期貨交易活動對期貨報酬確實具有顯著預測能力,拒絕台灣衍生性金融商品市標的市場之間為分開均衡的虛無假設,支持共同均衡假說。
    3.在預測未來標的期貨價格變動的方向性上,非三大法人的期貨交易量和未平倉量皆為反向影響,不符合EOS理論方向假設,顯示非三大法人的長短期的期貨交易皆是一反向期貨市場預測參考指標。
    4.相反地,整體機構交易人的期貨交易量和未平倉量皆為正向影響,符合EOS理論方向假設正向影響,顯示整體機構法人在操作上,其長短期的方向性交易活動對標的期貨價格的影響效果較符合EOS理論方向假設。
    This research applies the directional trading volume concept of the EOS Theory(1988)to exam the direction assumptions of the model under different types of traders. The empirical results are listed below:
    1. The trading volume and open interests of non-specific institutional investors are negatively correlated with the underlying assets prices movements, which is inconsistent with the directional hypotheses of EOS model.
    2. The futures trading activities of all types of traders are significant in forecasting futures prices movement, which rejects the separate equilibrium hypotheses.
    3. The trading volume and open interests of non-specific institution investors are negatively correlated with the directional prices forecasting, which is inconsistent with the direction hypotheses of EOS, indicating the long-term and short-term trading of non-specific institution investors are inverse market indicators.
    4. On the contrary, the trading volume and open interests of specific institution investors are positively correlated with the direction of futures prices forecasting
    Appears in Collections:[財務金融學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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