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    題名: 臺灣期貨契約成敗因素之探討
    其他題名: The successful and failure factors of futures contracts in Taiwan
    台灣期貨契約成敗因素之探討
    作者: 賴思璇;Lai, Sz-hsuan
    貢獻者: 淡江大學財務金融學系碩士在職專班
    謝文良;Hsieh, Wen-liang
    關鍵詞: 期貨契約;市場規模;價格波動;避險績效;流動性;futures contracts;market size;Volatility;hedge effectiveness;Liquidity
    日期: 2008
    上傳時間: 2010-01-11 00:42:18 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本研究分析影響期貨契約成功或失敗的因素,目的在於探討在臺灣目前的環境下,影響期貨契約的成敗因素與期貨交易量之間的關係。
    本文分別從現貨商品特性、期貨契約特性及避險績效來探討影響期貨契約成功或失敗的因素,最後將影響契約成敗的因素納入本文的實證模型,實證結果顯示:一、現貨商品特性:現貨市場的規模與期貨交易量呈現高度顯著正相關,而現貨市場價格波動性與期貨交易量呈現顯著負相關,若以變幅(range) 當作現貨價格波動性的代理變數,則現貨價格波動性與期貨交易量呈現顯著的正相關。二、期貨契約特性:期貨契約若有發展選擇權契約且具備先進者優勢,將有助於交易量的增加,而契約規格與期貨交易量呈現負相關,顯示當期貨規格較小時,將會有助於期貨交易量的增加。三、避險績效:避險績效和期貨交易量呈現顯著的正相關,表示若期貨契約的避險績效較高,較容易吸引市場參與者進入市場交易。成功的期貨契約不論是以5天、10天、20天避險,其避險績效都很高,且避險績效會隨著避險期間增加而上升。
    In this research, we analyze the factors which affect the success or failure of futures contract. The purpose is to explore the successful or failure factors of the futures contract and the relationship between Futures trading volume in Taiwan futures market.
    This article discusses the factors which affect the success or failure of futures contract in three aspects: the spot commodities, futures contract characteristics and the performance of hedge. Results suggest that: First, with regard to the spot commodity characteristics: the size of the spot market and futures trading volume show highly significant positive correlation, while the spot market price volatility and futures volume show negative. Second, with regard to the characteristics of futures contract: if the futures contract has its own options and is a first-mover contract, it will be helpful in increasing trading volume. There is a negative correlation between contract size and trading volume, suggesting that a smaller contract size helps in increasing the trading volume. Third, with regard to the hedge performance: hedge performance and volume show significant positive correlation, indicating that if the futures contract has better hedge performance, it is much easier to attract market participants to enter the market. A successful futures contract shows high hedging performance in 5, 10, or 20 days hedging period. Finally, hedging performance rises as the hedging period increase.
    顯示於類別:[財務金融學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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