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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/31443

    Title: 考慮流動性下之利率期間結構預測
    Other Titles: Forecasting the term structure of interest rates with liquidity
    Authors: 簡雨柔;Chien, Yu-jou
    Contributors: 淡江大學財務金融學系碩士班
    林蒼祥;Lin, William. T.
    Keywords: 利率期間結構;流動性;預測;時間序列;Term Structure of Interest Rates;Liquidity;Forecasting;Time series
    Date: 2007
    Issue Date: 2010-01-11 00:42:16 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 由於我國公債市場的交易分配不均,所以流動性不同的債券,流動性溢酬應該也不相同,而這種情形也會反應在殖利率曲線上,影響到殖利率曲線的形狀,所以,在配適殖利率曲線時應將流動性納入考量。本文以Svensson模型為基礎,在模型中額外加入流動性加權函數,配適台灣公債市場的公債殖利率曲線,並利用模型中四個估計因子的時間序列模型進行債券價格之預測,根據我們所配適出的公債殖利率曲線發現,採用流動性目標函數所配適出的公債殖利率曲線確實較符合現實的公債市場。
    Because bonds with different liquidities have different premiums, it should be reflect on the yield curve. So, when we estimate the term structure of interest rates, liquidities should be considered. This research decomposes the term structure into four factors by using Svensson model, and attempts to predict the factors themselves. Because the yield curve depends only on the factors, forecasting the yield curve is equivalent to forecasting the factors.
    Empirical results show that when applied the liquidity weighted objective function, the yield curve is appropriate to explain the situation of Taiwan Government Bond Market and forecasting price errors of sample bonds are also smaller in all kinds of horizons. In addition, the results also find the degree of accuracy decline as forecasting horizon increasing.
    Appears in Collections:[財務金融學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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