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    Title: 未來學時間概念之哲學思考
    Other Titles: A philosophical interpretation of time concept in future studies.
    Authors: 劉自誠;Liou, Tzu-cheng
    Contributors: 淡江大學未來學研究所碩士班
    陳瑞貴;Chen, Jui-kuei
    Keywords: 未來學的時間觀;責任倫理學;細部社會工程;Time concept in Future Studies;Ethics of responsibility;Piecemeal social engineering
    Date: 2008
    Issue Date: 2010-01-11 00:40:23 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 未來學萌芽於一九四○年代,從一九六○年到一九七○年未來學歷經了科學哲學發展的巔峰時期,科學哲學的思想滋養了未來學家的思考,其中實證論(Positivism)、後實證論(Postpositivism)與批判實在論(Critical Realism)這三種論點影響了未來學家在時間概念上思考方向,科學哲學對時間概念的理解延續了現代物理時間觀上線性式看待時間的方式,未來是當前事件必然發生的結果;在未來學的領域裡,成功預測未來是大眾對未來學者的期待,當未來學者在預測未來,進行未來規劃時,思想中預含了整體主義(Holism)與烏托邦式的思考(Utopian Thinking),Propper從反對歷史定論主義的思想來駁斥建立社會藍圖的可能。Jonas提出了「責任倫理學」(Ethics of responsibility),認為人在進行當前的行動時,都應該時時考慮當前的行動將如何的影響未來,並承擔起對未來的責任。本研究將綜合以上論點,並重新詮釋未來學「時間」意義底下的觀念與價值。
    研究結果與發現如下:
    1.未來學中預測的意義不在於對未來做出百分百無誤的預測,倘若如此未來是被決定了,如此否定人透過實踐的自身的價值的展現,以及對未來實踐的意義,未來學中的未來是開放的,換言之是開放性的時間觀,預測的意義在於喚醒人對時間意識的醒知,因為唯有開放的時間觀,人才有對未來實踐參與的空間,透過實踐來達其對渴望未來的追求,完善其身。
    2.在開放的未來學時間觀底下,未來是一種實踐預期的目的性概念,人有對未來實踐參與的可能性與必要性。
    3.在機體式的哲學觀下,任何的未來預測與其未來行動,應時時考慮其對未來所可能產生的影響,並將責任倫理學的思維納入未來的實踐中,使其負有責任的意義,使未來學為負責任的思考、實踐的科學。
    Futures Studies conceptualized in 1940, from 1960 to 1970 went through the peak of development in Philosophy of Science. The main proponents of Philosophy of Science, such as Positivism, Postpositivism and Critical Realism deeply influenced the futurists’ ideas of the time concept in Future Studies. The understanding of time in Philosophy of Science continues the linear time frame of modern physics. Future is happening after the present event. In the field of Futures Studies, people expect futurists to predict futures accurately. When futurists are predicting futures, and mapping possible futures, they employ Holism and Utopian thinking. Karl Propper opposed Historicism of trying to plan a blueprint for society. Jonas believed in Ethics of responsibility, and he asserted that when people are engaged in any activities which are related to futures they should always be concerned with how they are going to affect futures. This research encompasses all the ideas above, and reinterprets the time concept in Futures Studies.
    The results of the study are showed as follows:
    1.The meaning of prediction is to not focus on the accuracy of itself, but to awaken people’s
    awareness of time. If we can predict the future accurately, it is determined. People have no
    way to practice for the future. In other words only when futures are open, then people can
    participate and pursue their desirable future.
    2.The Time concept in Futures Studies is open. Futures are participatory and practical.
    3.In Philosophy of Organism and Ethics of Responsibility, any form of prediction and action
    which is related to futures should always be concerned with influence to futures and this makes Futures Studies to be responsible and participatory science.
    Appears in Collections:[未來學研究所] 學位論文

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