2005年下半年至2006年年底，對拉丁美洲及美國來說為重要的時刻，原因為拉丁美洲總計包含墨西哥共有12個國家舉行總統大選。這些國家的大選結果，也將決定今後拉美國家向左或向右的發展走向。2000年代表右派的國家行動黨（Partido Acción Nacional，PAN）候選人福克斯( Vicente Fox Quesada )，打破了墨西哥長達71年的革命建制黨（Partido Revolucionario Institucional，PRI）一黨專政的局面後，屬於墨西哥左派的民主革命黨（Partido de la Revolución Democrática， PRD）總統候選人洛佩斯（Andrés Manuel López Obrador），在2006年的選舉前聲望如日中天，被視為墨西哥激進左翼政黨第一次有機會可入主總統府，並對墨西哥未來產生重要變數，同時將會更進一步增強拉丁美洲對於反美及反新自由主義陣營的實力。
一般人認為，左翼的洛佩斯代表貧困人民的利益，而右翼的卡爾德龍則被認為代表中產階級和富人的利益，因此這次選舉也可說是民主革命黨與國家行動黨之間的競爭，更是不同社會階層之間的角力戰。基於上述動機理由，本研究藉由探討各黨候選人在遭遇內、外因素變化的同時，將採取何種的攻防策略，並歸結出卡爾德龍何以在這次選戰中反敗為勝的關鍵因素。 To Latin America as well as the United States, the period of time between 2005 and 2006 had been critical. During this period of time Mexico and eleven other Latin American countries celebrated their presidential elections. The results of the presidential elections will determine whether these countries will remain conservative or take a left turn. In the year 2000 the conservative party’s (Partido Acción Nacional ,PAN) candidate Vicente Fox won the presidential elections finishing 71 years of PRI (Partido Revolucionario Institucional, PRI) rule. At the eve of the 2006 presidential elections PRD’s (Partido de la Revolución Democrática, PRD) candidate Andres Manual Lopez Obrador had the upper hand in the polls; he was regarded as Mexico’s first radical leftist leader to have a chance in entering the presidential palace. His victory would have represented big changes in the government’s policies as well as continuity to Latin America’s leftist rise.
However, the results of the elections did not favor Obrador, it was a close battle between the two candidates. Even though Obrador enjoyed a 80% support in the country when he was still the mayor of Mexico City in 2005 and had substantial advantage during the course of his campaign, he failed to maintain the favorable situation in the last two months of his presidential campaign. In May 2006, Calderon was already leading the polls by a small percentage, the final results of the election showed that Calderon won the presidency by a merely 0.56%.The above facts show the intensity of the competition in Mexico’s 2006 presidential elections.
It is the opinion of most Mexican citizens that Obrador represents the poor and the marginalized and Calderon represents the rich and elite. The 2006 elections is a battle not only between the conservative party and the leftist party but also a battle between the interest of the rich and poor. Based on the above reasons, this study will be analyzing the participating party’s campaign strategy as well as other factors during the course of the elections to determine how Calderon managed to turn the tide in his favor during the closing months of his campaign.