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    Title: 2006年墨西哥總統大選之研究
    Other Titles: An analysis of Mexico's 2006 presidential elections.
    Authors: 蔡金伶;Tsai, Chin-ling
    Contributors: 淡江大學拉丁美洲研究所碩士班
    熊建成;Hui, Juan-hung
    Keywords: 墨西哥;總統選舉;競選策略;競選環境;國家行動黨;民主革命黨;革命建制黨;卡爾德龍;洛佩斯;馬德拉索;Mexico;Presidential election;Campaign Strategy;Campaign Environment;PAN;PRD;PRI;Felipe Calderó;n;André;s Manuel Ló;pez Obrador;Roberto Madrazo .
    Date: 2007
    Issue Date: 2010-01-10 23:48:35 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 2005年下半年至2006年年底,對拉丁美洲及美國來說為重要的時刻,原因為拉丁美洲總計包含墨西哥共有12個國家舉行總統大選。這些國家的大選結果,也將決定今後拉美國家向左或向右的發展走向。2000年代表右派的國家行動黨(Partido Acción Nacional,PAN)候選人福克斯( Vicente Fox Quesada ),打破了墨西哥長達71年的革命建制黨(Partido Revolucionario Institucional,PRI)一黨專政的局面後,屬於墨西哥左派的民主革命黨(Partido de la Revolución Democrática, PRD)總統候選人洛佩斯(Andrés Manuel López Obrador),在2006年的選舉前聲望如日中天,被視為墨西哥激進左翼政黨第一次有機會可入主總統府,並對墨西哥未來產生重要變數,同時將會更進一步增強拉丁美洲對於反美及反新自由主義陣營的實力。

    然而選舉是一個詭譎多變的活動歷程,不到最後關頭難分軒輊,猶記得洛佩斯在2005年離開墨西哥聯邦行政區(Distrito Federal)首長職位時,全國民調支持度曾經高達80﹪,之後也一路保持領先的優勢,但卻在接近總統選舉投票日的前兩個月,選情開始出現逆轉,2006年5月代表國家行動黨候選人卡爾德龍(Felipe Calderón)開始出現民調領先的局面,甚至在選前一刻兩人差距又極為微小,等到真正開票的結果出爐僅以0.56%的差距分出勝負,由卡爾德龍宣布當選,足見此次2006年墨西哥總統大選的激烈程度!

    一般人認為,左翼的洛佩斯代表貧困人民的利益,而右翼的卡爾德龍則被認為代表中產階級和富人的利益,因此這次選舉也可說是民主革命黨與國家行動黨之間的競爭,更是不同社會階層之間的角力戰。基於上述動機理由,本研究藉由探討各黨候選人在遭遇內、外因素變化的同時,將採取何種的攻防策略,並歸結出卡爾德龍何以在這次選戰中反敗為勝的關鍵因素。
    To Latin America as well as the United States, the period of time between 2005 and 2006 had been critical. During this period of time Mexico and eleven other Latin American countries celebrated their presidential elections. The results of the presidential elections will determine whether these countries will remain conservative or take a left turn. In the year 2000 the conservative party’s (Partido Acción Nacional ,PAN) candidate Vicente Fox won the presidential elections finishing 71 years of PRI (Partido Revolucionario Institucional, PRI) rule. At the eve of the 2006 presidential elections PRD’s (Partido de la Revolución Democrática, PRD) candidate Andres Manual Lopez Obrador had the upper hand in the polls; he was regarded as Mexico’s first radical leftist leader to have a chance in entering the presidential palace. His victory would have represented big changes in the government’s policies as well as continuity to Latin America’s leftist rise.

    However, the results of the elections did not favor Obrador, it was a close battle between the two candidates. Even though Obrador enjoyed a 80% support in the country when he was still the mayor of Mexico City in 2005 and had substantial advantage during the course of his campaign, he failed to maintain the favorable situation in the last two months of his presidential campaign. In May 2006, Calderon was already leading the polls by a small percentage, the final results of the election showed that Calderon won the presidency by a merely 0.56%.The above facts show the intensity of the competition in Mexico’s 2006 presidential elections.

    It is the opinion of most Mexican citizens that Obrador represents the poor and the marginalized and Calderon represents the rich and elite. The 2006 elections is a battle not only between the conservative party and the leftist party but also a battle between the interest of the rich and poor. Based on the above reasons, this study will be analyzing the participating party’s campaign strategy as well as other factors during the course of the elections to determine how Calderon managed to turn the tide in his favor during the closing months of his campaign.
    Appears in Collections:[拉丁美洲研究所] 學位論文

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