中國自1978年開始實施改革開放政策以來，其國力大幅提升。 為了保障經濟持續發展，北京建構一個和平穩定的週邊國際環境。 隨著中國國力提升之際，中國認為其國際地位應有所調整。以其現 有國力，中國思考如何向外擴張其影響力。因為地緣戰略的考量， 中國認為東南亞地區是其擴張權力的最佳首選。中國未來的崛起， 必然從東南亞地區開始。而美國為防止中國的崛起，近年來不斷強 化美日安保聯盟，並以反恐為名將勢力重新伸入東南亞，對中國隱 然有戰略圍堵的意味。因此，為突破美國的戰略圍堵，東南亞成為 中國突破美國戰略圍堵的重要地區。種種內部與外部的因素，使得 中國相當重視東協國家的戰略地位，對東協國家擬定相當縝密的戰 略規劃。近年來中國逐步拉攏東協國家，藉由積極參與東協安全對 話、籌組與東協之間的自由貿易區、大湄公河的共同開發、緩和南 海主權爭議等等作為，擴大對東協的影響力，逐步強化與東協國家 的政經關係。 面對中國與東協的整合趨勢，台灣在外交與經濟上都將面對相 當大的挑戰。由於中國對東協的影響力日增，東協國家為避免得罪 中國，在外交上更加貼近「一個中國」政策。在經濟層面上，中國 與東協在2004年正式簽署自由貿易區協議，預定於2010年完成自 由貿易區的組建，屆時台灣的產品將因關稅問題，在價格上失去競 爭力，對我國經濟發展造成相當不利的影響。為避免我國在國際上 被進一步孤立與邊緣化，政府應擬定台灣的整體國家安全戰略，以 確保台灣未來經濟發展以及國家安全。 China’s comprehensive national power has been rising rapidly since it followed the open and improvement policy in 1978. Beijing seeks to acquire and establish a favorable security environment that is conducive to continued economic growth. With the rapid growth of its national power, China is no longer satisfied with its social scale in the international community. China starts to think about how to expand its power outward. And the Southeast Asia is the best choice for China to expand power due to the geographical consideration. We can forecast that if China is to rise someday, it must rise from Southeast Asia. To prevent China from rising in the international community, the United States continues to strengthen the US-Japan alliance and redeploy its military power by the name of counter-terrorism. Thus the Southeast is where China breaks the strategic containment from the United State. China values the strategic position of ASEAN because of the internal and external factors mentioned above. It enacts an sophisticated strategy toward ASEAN. China is closing to the ASEAN step by step. China amplifies its influence on ASEAN by means of composing FTA, attending security talk, cultivating the great Mei-gong river, easing the sovereignty dispute over South China sea. China is strengthening its political and economic relation with ASEAN step by step In the face of the integration stream of ASEAN and China, Taiwan is facing gigantic challenge in diplomatic and economic aspects.In diplomatic aspect, in order not to offend China, ASEAN is approaching “one China” policy. In economic aspect, China and ASEAN reached an agreement on FTA in 2004. China and ASEAN will compose the greatest FTA in the world by 2010.Taiwan’s product will lose competitiveness on price due to the customs imposition. Then the economic development of Taiwan will suffer adversity. To prevent from being isolated in the international community, the authorities must enact Taiwan’s national security strategy as soon as possible and thus assure the economic development and national security.
