中共「反分裂國家法」的戰略意涵

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Title:	中共「反分裂國家法」的戰略意涵
Other Titles:	The strategic implications of China's anti-secession law
Authors:	陳亦偉;Chen, Yi-wei
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班林中斌;Lin, Chong-pin
Keywords:	反分裂國家法;法律戰;兩岸關係;和平發展;美中關係;anti-secession law;legal warfare;Cross-strait Relations;Peaceful Development;U.S-China relations
Date:	2007
Issue Date:	2010-01-10 23:46:57 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	《反分裂國家法》出台後，各方看法不一。就當台灣內部為反分裂法的目的爭論不休之際，北京啟動全新風貌的涉台工作，在此同時，面對台灣拋出衝擊性議題，中共不再出現大規模文攻武嚇，反而是美國站上滅火的第一線。這是否意味，中共有意藉反分裂法，營造「聯美遏獨」統一戰線，並藉此掌握台海問題的戰略主動權，以確保國家發展腳步不被台獨打亂，再透過柔性惠台政策，以促使兩岸情勢出現有利統一的氛圍，值得研究。雖然《反分裂國家法》出爐後，分析反分裂法意目的、意涵的學術論著越來越多，然而相關論著或將反分裂法視為北京對台動武的戰爭授權法；或僅就反分裂法違反國際法部分提出批評；或僅從反分裂法與法律戰等單一面向議題研析。對於反分裂法中「依法對台交流」、美中「台海穩定屬共同利益」等層面的深入分析似猶未見。基於上述，本論文嘗試藉更廣泛的資料蒐整與深入探究，對中共《反分裂國家法》戰略意涵的虛實，做客觀探討，期能彰顯本論文的參考與運用價值，並彌補目前相關研究之不足。本研究發現，《反分裂國家法》具有「防獨保國發(防止台獨以確保中共國家發展)」、「交流促質變(依法推動涉台工作與交流，以營造有利統一的氛圍)」、「聯美穩台海(聯合美國遏止台獨，營造美中享台海穩定的共同利益) 」三個戰略意涵。其次，反分裂法具有：一、符合薄富爾總體戰略理論；二、減輕北京單獨處理台海危機風險；三、提供中共更靈活手段和平演變台灣等特點。此外，反分裂法內容透露出對台的正面意涵，應被重視。本研究建議，台灣必須自覺正身處歷史十字路口的處境，當前應以憲法一中與維持現狀，來尋求內部和解與開啟兩岸協商，以此架構維持兩岸和緩良性互動二十年，累積台灣實力。此外，台灣人民應調整思維，認清兩岸問題與台灣前途不是台灣人民所能自行決定，而是取決於美中台的互動，讓時間解決兩岸問題。 The outside reactions vary after Chinese government passed the Anti-Secession Law. While inside Taiwan the debate continues about the purpose of the Anti-Secession Law, Beijing has used new tactics on Taiwan by getting the U.S. to the front line containing Taiwanese independence, rather than Beijing to use political propaganda and threaten of attacking Taiwan as what it previously would have done. The strategy that Beijing uses, one in utilizing Anti-Secession Law to form alliance with U.S. so to prevent the Taiwanese independence issue from effecting Chinese economy growth and national development, and second to issue policies in showing goodwill to Taiwan so to create pro-reunification atmosphere, is the strategy which this essay is looking into. Many studies and journals on the Anti-Secession Law are either seeing law as a stamp in authorizing Beijing to use military forces to attack Taiwan, or from the perspective in criticizing that the law is contradicting the principles of international law, or only analyzing the law itself and the debate it causes in lawful terms. However, there are less studies and journals in discussing about the meaning and implications of cross-strait interaction as stated in the Anti-Secession Law, and maintain the Taiwan Strait stable is a common interests would mean to the Chinese-U.S. relationship. Therefore, this essay attempts to analyze the strategic implications of the Chinese Anti-Secession Law in China-Taiwan-U.S. relationship, understand its truthful meaning by using a broader range of information for study so to get a more objective view of the purpose of the Anti-Secession Law. This thesis concludes that the Anti-Secession law has three strategic implications: 1. Preventing Taiwan independence from effecting Chinese national development. 2.Promote cross-strait interactions to create a pro-reunification atmosphere. 3.Cooperate with the U.S. to contain Taiwan independence and persuade the U.S. that both the U.S. and China can benefit from cross-strait stability. This study suggest:A.that Taiwan should maintain cross-strait status quo with the “constitution-based one China principle”; B.that Taiwanese people should pragmatically realize that Taiwan’s future is jointly determined by Taiwan,the U.S.,and China;and C. that the best solution of the cross-strait dilemma is through time.
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