從風險管理途徑檢視中共能源安全戰略發展之研究（2002－2007年）

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Title:	從風險管理途徑檢視中共能源安全戰略發展之研究（2002－2007年）
Other Titles:	A study on the strategies of energy security of proc by using a risk management approach
Authors:	李益州;Le, E-chou
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班翁明賢;Wong, Ming-hsien
Keywords:	風險管理;能源戰略;能源安全;energy risk;Risk management;residual risk;energy security
Date:	2009
Issue Date:	2010-01-10 23:46:49 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	從風險管理步驟檢視中共能源安全，可瞭解中共的能源安全威脅與分佈，對中共的能源安全戰略，可做通盤的檢視進而掌握中共對未來的能源安全戰略發展。從2002－2007年中共能源風險分佈顯示，2002年時中共能源風險由高而低依序為石油、天然氣及煤。「石油」風險位居於中共極度危險的風險()需立即採取行動的風險位置；「天然氣」達中共能源安全高度危險的風險(high risk)、「煤」為中度危險的風險(moderate risk)。經採取控制機制，至2008年中共能源安全殘餘風險（Residual risk），石油降至高度危險的風險(high risk)、天然氣減低至中度危險的風險(moderate risk)、煤降低為低度危險的風險(low risk)。中共宣稱以「化石能源為主向可持續能源為主過渡的目標平穩實現」及「煤炭為主體、電力為中心、石油天然氣和可再生能源全面發展」尚未成真，在現實的環境下，中共是務實的面對，但未來中共的能源安全是一個挑戰。 Analyzing the strategies of energy security of People Republic of China (PROC) by using a risk management approach, we can learn their threats, energy distribution and the future strategies of energy security. From the energy risk analysis of PROC in years 2002-2007,the energy risk was classified into four levels, namely, extreme, high, moderate, and low. In year 2002, petroleum was at the level of extreme risk so that an immediate action should be taken. Liquified natural gas (LNG) was at level of high risk while coal was at the moderate level. By adopting the suitable control mechanism, the residual risk of energy security has been reduced. According to the report in year 2008, the risk levels of petroleum, LNG, and coal in PROC have been reduced into high, moderate and low, respectively. PROC declared that the transition from chemical and petroleum energy to sustainable energy has been in steady process. The strategy to use coal as main energy, use electricity as a central component, mine petroleum and LNG constantly, and develop reusable energy in all possible ways has yet to realize. At present, PROC has dealt with the energy security in a pragmatic way. However, the energy security strategy is still a challenge for PROC in the future.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of International Affairs And Strategic Studies] Thesis

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