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    題名: 江澤民時期(1989—2004年)對臺軍事演習作戰能力之研究
    其他題名: Research on China's operational capacity of military exercise against Taiwan during Jiang Zemin's tenure(year 1989-2004)
    江澤民時期(1989—2004年)對台軍事演習作戰能力之研究
    作者: 張正義;Chang, Cheng-yi
    貢獻者: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班
    曾復生
    關鍵詞: 軍事戰略;質量建軍;科技強軍;新三打三防;Military strategy;Building a highly qualified army;Consolidation of army by using science and technology;new “Three Attacks and Three Defenses”
    日期: 2007
    上傳時間: 2010-01-10 23:46:46 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 論文提要內容:
    中共在江澤民領導15年期間,隨著第一、二次波斯灣及科索沃戰爭的爆發,美國以迅雷不及掩耳的速度結束戰爭,帶動了一連串的世界戰略轉變,對中共國防軍事上有著嚴重的衝擊,顛覆了傳統的軍事思想與戰略戰法,為因應未來戰爭型態,在軍事上投入大量發展計畫,並在軍事思想的轉變、戰術戰法的創新、武器裝備的研發、科技航天的發展均有成效,江澤民的軍事思想在此種條件下逐漸形成。
    而解放軍的部隊訓練向來係依據不同時代之環境背景來決定訓練方針,如1993年-打贏高技術條件下的局部戰爭;1995年-兩個轉變;1997年-科技大練兵等;1999及2003年則是汲取「科索沃戰爭」與「第二次波斯灣戰爭」之經驗,廣泛運用於年度各軍、兵種之年終訓練考核,再逐步推廣至各部隊進行演練,檢驗訓練成效,並置重點於強化「新三打三防」演練。另解放軍為抗擊未來解決臺灣問題可能干預之美軍,進一步研擬「先打無人飛機、再擊有人飛機」、「先防精確制導武器、再抗巡弋導彈」、「先打預警飛機、再抗航母編隊」、「先打隱形飛機、再抗擊轟炸機」四項新戰法,為未來「抗美奪臺」作準備。
    本論文主要在探討江澤民時期對臺軍事演習作戰能力及預測解放軍未來以軍事行動處理臺灣問題可能方式,並就相關議題提出建議,本文共分六章:
    第一章緒論首先針對研究動機與目的、範圍與限制、方法與架構等提出說明,並對有關軍事戰略相關名詞作一界定,再對臺軍事演習作戰的文獻作整理及評析。第二章闡述江澤民時期的軍事戰略思維形
    成與轉變之因素及影響。第三章分析中共實兵戰役演習;從演習程序及內容中,瞭解其制空、制海及特種作戰之能力。第四章根據中共1995-96聯合軍事演習,對臺進行三波聯合軍事演習,即導彈攻擊演習、制空、制海作戰演習、兩棲、空降攻擊演習,比較其戰術戰法轉變之處。第五章探討中共「東山島」軍事演習三階段展開之信息戰、三軍渡海登陸作戰、演練「抗美奪臺」之能力。第六章結論。
    綜合而言,中共對臺軍事策略,概分為三個面向:一是2007年之前將完成對臺所謂全面形成應急作戰能力;二是2010年之前具備大規模作戰能力;三是2015年之前具備決戰決勝能力,以此反思,並檢驗解放軍對臺歷次演習模式,顯然在此策略之下,正逐步落實當中。古有明訓:前事不忘,後事之師。在兩岸關係混沌不明,以及美國、日本關切臺海,並未做出任何軍事承諾之際,呼籲國人本乎「無恃敵之不來,恃吾有以待之………」。
    During the reign of Jiang Zemin from 1989 to 2004, China changed its traditional military thinking and strategy, after the U.S. ended the first and the second Persian Gulf Wars, and the Kosovo War in a very short time, which brought a transition in military strategy all over the world. In order to face the future war, China spent lots of money in military development, hence the results seen in the change of military thinking, innovation of strategy and tactics, research in weapons and the development in technology and aerospace. Jiang''s military thinking was formed under these conditions.
    China''s Liberation Army decides its training principles according to the environment in different times. For example, the training focused on how to win a regional war under the condition of high technology in 1993; on “Two Changes” in 1995; on “Technological Exercise” in 1997. In 1997 and 2003, China learned the lessons from Kosovo War and the second Persian Gulf War and applied them to the annual training assessments in every military branch, then extending to each unit for exercise, examining the results and reinforcing the exercise of “New Three Attacks and Three Defenses”. Furthermore, to deal with the U.S. forces, which may intervene in Taiwan issue, the Liberation Army established four basic principles for the preparation of the future war against the U.S.: “Strike the unmanned airplane first and then the manned airplane”; “Guard against precision guidance weapons and then cruise missiles”; “Strike the early warning aircraft first and then carrier battle group”; “Strike the invisible aircraft first and then the bomber aircraft”.
    This thesis focus on the discussion about China’s ability of military exercise towards Taiwan during Jiang''s reign, and predicts how the Liberation Army will handle Taiwan issue with its military forces.
    Chapter One discusses motivation and purpose, scope and limitations, and method and structure. The vocabulary words in military strategy are defined, and the research papers on military exercise towards Taiwan are reviewed in this chapter as well. Chapter Two elaborates the formation of military strategic thinking during Jiang''s period and the reasons why it changed. Chapter Three analyzes China’s military maneuver. Chapter Four compared the tactics and the changes based on the united military exercises from 1995 to 1996. Chapter Five discusses the exercises near Dongshan Island: the information operation, the joint army, navy and air force amphibious landing operation, and simulating the invasion when US interfere in Taiwan issue. Chapter Six concludes the thesis.
    In general, China''s strategy against Taiwan can be divided into three dimensions: First, the completion of its military forces against Taiwan in all areas before 2007. Second, the ability to engage in a large-scale war before 2010. Third, the capability to win any type of war in a short time before 2010. Based on these dimensions, we can find that China is approaching its goals over the years after examining the Liberation Army''s military exercise towards Taiwan. While the relation between China and Taiwan is not clear, and the U.S. and Japan have not promised anything on military issues, it is recommended that our nation be prepared for the future war and get ready to engage at any time.
    顯示於類別:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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