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    題名: 中國海上石油運輸安全
    其他題名: China's offshore oil transport security
    作者: 王信力;Wang, Sing-lie
    貢獻者: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班
    曾復生
    關鍵詞: 石油;石油安全;地緣政治;航道安全;運輸安全;petroleum;petroleum security;Geopolitics;waterway safety;transport security
    日期: 2008
    上傳時間: 2010-01-10 23:46:34 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 隨著經濟的成長,石油已成為中國經濟命脈的血液。中國自1993年成為石油進口國以來,對外依存度不斷提高,在2006年進口量已達1.8億噸,對外依存度近50%。中國2007能源發展報告指出,對外依存度若超過50%屬於「很危險」的程度,必須要從國家安全的層次看待。研析中國採取的石油安全戰略,可以從「提高國內生產」、「加快石油儲備」、「分散進口來源」的面向探討。
    中國雖致力於分散石油進口來源,但其進口產地卻有向中東及非洲集中的趨勢,進口的運輸方式主要採取海路運輸。自非洲及中東地區到達東北亞的運輸航線,對於中國而言並不安全。除了眾所周知的麻六甲海峽存在的海盜與恐怖份子之外,中國尚必須面對地緣政治上的風險,包括美國、日本、印度等大國的軍事威脅,以及與周邊國家在南海、台海、東海的海洋利益與主權爭端。
    基於海上石油運輸航線風險的複雜性,中國採取軍事、外交與經濟的策略與措施因應。在軍事方面除運用其日益壯大的潛艦部隊及新式水面艦,維護其運輸航線的安全外,其發展航母與海軍重心南移的趨勢升高,代表中國將可能發展「遠洋海軍」介入南海及印度洋的事務,以維護石油運輸航線的安全;在外交上則是採「擱置主權、共同開發」的手段,降低區域衝突的風險;在經濟上則是透過介入東協自由貿易區的手法,與區域國家進行能源合作,並合作開發港口、鐵路及運輸管道來迴避海上運輸的風險。
    台灣地處中國石油運輸航道的關鍵位置,一但台海生變,將會影響中國海上石油運輸的安全。因此可以暸解中國為何對台灣採取軟硬兼施的二手策略。中國除了不放棄以武力恫赫外,對台灣採取一系列的「軟措施」來改善二岸的關係,其主要目的之ㄧ,就是希望台灣不要成為美日等國家切斷中國海上石油運輸航線的棋子。
    With economic growth, oil has become China''s economic lifeline of blood. Since 1993, China has become one of the oil-importing countries, increasingly depending on foreign countries. In 2006, the imports reached 180 million tons, the external dependence of nearly 50 percent. China''s energy development report of 2007 shows that the external dependence of more than 50% is a very dangerous level. It must be treated from the national security point of view. An Analysis of China''s oil security strategy can start from "increasing domestic production," "speed up oil reserves", "dispersed sources of imports."
    Although China is committed to decentralizing sources of oil imports, but its importing sources are focusing on the Middle East and Africa. Its major means of transport are through sea transport. The shipping route from Africa and the Middle East to the Northeast Asia is not safe for China. In addition to the well-known existence of pirates and terrorists in the Malacca Strait, China must face the geopolitical risks, including the military threats of the United States, Japan, and India, as well as marine interests and the sovereignty disputes with neighboring countries in the South China Sea, Taiwan Straits, East China Sea.
    Based on the complexity of the risk of maritime oil transport routes, China is using military, diplomatic and economic strategies and measures to respond. In the military aspect, besides of using its growing submarine forces and the new surface ships to safeguard the security of their transport routes, the development of Navy aircraft carriers and the shifting focus of the Navy to the south means that China is expected to develop "ocean navy" to intervene in the affairs of the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, so as to safeguard the security of oil shipping routes. In the diplomatic aspect, China is taking "shelving the sovereignty and seeking common development" means to reduce the risk of regional conflicts. In the economic aspect, China is looking for ways to intervene on the ASEAN Free Trade Area and on energy cooperation, as well as on cooperation and development of ports, railways and pipelines with regional countries to avoid the risk of maritime transport.
    Taiwan is located on the key position of China''s oil transport channel. If any conflict occurred across the Taiwan Strait, China''s offshore oil transport safety will be affected. So this is why China plays a double –face strategy on the Taiwan. In addition to China’s refusing to abandon the use of force against Taiwan, it has adopted a series of "soft measures" to improve the relationship across the strait, one of the main purposes is that China doesn’t want to see Taiwan become the pawn for the United States, Japan, or other countries to cut off China''s offshore oil shipping routes.
    顯示於類別:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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