綜合四次台海軍事危機形成因素，發現其衝突根源仍不脫離美國在西太平洋的利益考量，且美國對台海問題的立場是堅持反對使用武力，任何企圖以非和平手段決定台灣前途的行動，都將對西太平洋地區和平穩定造成威脅，而同樣的，台灣傾向台獨的立場也將會影響中共的根本利益核心，也會使台海進一步產生嚴重衝突，進而影響美國在此區的利益，故現階段美國在兩岸間仍扮演平衡者角色，對兩岸政策可簡單概括為「不獨、不武」，期使台海軍事衝突在此規範下有效獲得控制。 China has never renounced the use of force to unite with Taiwan since 1949 when the KMT government retreated to the island.China’s use of artillery shelling,missile testing,and constant landing exercises have made Taiwan one of the most likely places for military conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.Taiwan’s security is not only decided by the interaction of the two governments across the Strait,but also the international relations in the region,especially the US’s policy being the major external factor.
There were four major military crises between 1949 and 1999,which could have Triggered off military conflicts.This thesis tries to reveal the true causes of those crises by examining the domestic/international factors,and cross-strait interactions.
I draw conclusions from my research that the four crises were all connected to the US’s interests in the region.The US hopes to maintain peace and opposes any military actions by the two sides.Any attempt to decide Taiwan’s future through non-peaceful means is a threat to the stability in the West-Pacific region.In the same way,Taiwan’s act toward independence,which is sure to create more serious confrontations,can also hurt the interests of both China and the US.Currently,the US plays a peacemaking role,and it’s policy of opposing Taiwan independence and China’s use of force against the island has successfully reduced the chance of military conflict across the strait.
