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    題名: 台灣海峽潛在軍事危機根源之研究(1949-1999)
    其他題名: A study of the potential root causes of the military crises in Taiwan straits (1949-1999)
    臺灣海峽潛在軍事危機根源之研究(1949-1999)
    作者: 李柏蒼;Lee, Bor-tsang
    貢獻者: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班
    曾復生
    關鍵詞: 台灣海峽;軍事衝突;軍事危機;Taiwan strait;military conflict;military crises
    日期: 2006
    上傳時間: 2010-01-10 23:46:23 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 中共自國民政府播遷來台迄今,從未放棄「以武力解放台灣」選項,從砲擊外島、台海導彈試射至東南沿海三軍協同登島作戰演習等,均使台灣海峽成為亞太地區爆發軍事衝突主要熱點之一;然而台海安全不僅取決於兩岸執政當局的政策互動,同時也受制於亞太地區的國際關係,其中尤以美國政策是制約台海安全的主要外部因素。

    本論文透過檢視1949至1999四次台海軍事危機期間,導致軍事衝突的國際、國內及兩岸互動因素,探尋各時期引發衝突之原因與意圖,並試圖從中歸納出導致台海軍事危機的根本原因。

    綜合四次台海軍事危機形成因素,發現其衝突根源仍不脫離美國在西太平洋的利益考量,且美國對台海問題的立場是堅持反對使用武力,任何企圖以非和平手段決定台灣前途的行動,都將對西太平洋地區和平穩定造成威脅,而同樣的,台灣傾向台獨的立場也將會影響中共的根本利益核心,也會使台海進一步產生嚴重衝突,進而影響美國在此區的利益,故現階段美國在兩岸間仍扮演平衡者角色,對兩岸政策可簡單概括為「不獨、不武」,期使台海軍事衝突在此規範下有效獲得控制。
    China has never renounced the use of force to unite with Taiwan since 1949 when the KMT government retreated to the island.China’s use of artillery shelling,missile
    testing,and constant landing exercises have made Taiwan one of the most likely places for military conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.Taiwan’s security is not only decided by the interaction of the two governments across the Strait,but also the international relations in the region,especially the US’s policy being the major external factor.

    There were four major military crises between 1949 and 1999,which could have Triggered off military conflicts.This thesis tries to reveal the true causes of those crises by examining the domestic/international factors,and cross-strait interactions.

    I draw conclusions from my research that the four crises were all connected to the US’s interests in the region.The US hopes to maintain peace and opposes any military actions by the two sides.Any attempt to decide Taiwan’s future through non-peaceful means is a threat to the stability in the West-Pacific region.In the same
    way,Taiwan’s act toward independence,which is sure to create more serious confrontations,can also hurt the interests of both China and the US.Currently,the US plays a peacemaking role,and it’s policy of opposing Taiwan independence and China’s use of force against the island has successfully reduced the chance of military conflict across the strait.
    顯示於類別:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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