中國人民解放軍在中國崛起中的角色、地位與行動

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Title:	中國人民解放軍在中國崛起中的角色、地位與行動
Other Titles:	Role, status and action of the People's Liberation Army in the rise of China
Authors:	余一銘;Yu, Kenneth I-min
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班施正權;Shih, Cheng-chuan
Keywords:	中國崛起;解放軍;中國歷史傳統;中共政治特質;中共政治中的軍文關係;中共外交政策;中共能源政策;中共軍備擴散;台灣問題;解放軍的軍事戰略;解放軍的軍事指導思想(準則);信息化條件下局部戰爭;中國使用「詭計」的傳統(詭道);rise of China;the People’s Liberation Army(PLA);China’s historical tradition;speciality of the Communist Party of China;the civil-military relation in politics of China;foreign policy of China;China’s energy policy;arms proliferation of China;Taiwan problem;military strategy of PLA;doctrine of PLA;local war under informationized condition;deception tradition of China
Date:	2006
Issue Date:	2010-01-10 23:46:03 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	為了要全盤地探究中國人民解放軍在中國崛起中的角色、地位與行動，本論文從西方強權的崛起歷史，以及中國的歷史與戰略傳統和中共政治的特質開始探討，做為研究中共崛起，以及中國人民解放軍在其中角色、地位與行動的基礎。接著透過中共的崛起路線，中共的軍文關係，解放軍對中共崛起中各重要議題的看法，以及解放軍的軍事能力的探討，本論文逐步地完成對於解放軍在中共崛起中的角色、地位與行動的全面性研究。中共崛起的動力，乃來自對威脅與利益的反應，也來自企圖重新取得過往榮耀與中國身為帝國核心的歷史傳統。此並不脫出西方強權興起的歷史例證。但是中共崛起的過程使得中共的崛起迄今為止，不能夠以西方強權崛起的定義來予以定義。受到己身力量的不足與現代戰略環境條件的制約，中共至今使用的崛起方法都是和平形式的方法，在「和平崛起」、「大國外交」與「睦鄰外交」等口號下以漸進式、非正面對抗與零合競逐的方法，在強大而延續的領導人意志下持續推動崛起。中共乃是以巨大的領土與人口規模，以及不斷成長的經濟為後盾，以逐漸「社會化」的面貌參與國際社會，追求擴大具有可為中共所用的國際影響力。中共的崛起也不是藉與其他強權結盟而搭便車，而是以自身的規模優勢與地理位置為基礎，在強權權力領域間的空隙中崛起。此外，中共是一個尚有分裂問題的國家，這使得中共尚無法達成國土、人口與資源最大化以增長國力，以及國家目標集中於崛起而無旁鶩這兩個崛起所需的內部條件，而須將解決內部的分裂問題視為重要的戰略問題。不過，未來中共的崛起方式仍有改變可能。以可能被控制不致演變成大戰的軍事衝突取得權力的吸引力仍不可忽視，解放軍能力提升後中共走險棋的可能性也將增高。中共的崛起也如西方強權的崛起一般，對既有的權力局勢產生了革命性的挑戰，中共不斷發展的戰略目標與對過去榮耀的保持記憶，將持續使其他國家產生受威脅感。在如此的崛起路線下，解放軍已由政權的分享者轉變成主要是黨的工具與政策參與者身分。但是中共領導人為了樹立權威與鞏固地位，對解放軍的意向仍然必須有充分了解，並且設法滿足其要求，以繼續保持黨控制軍與黨軍共生。解放軍仍是中共政權的支柱。已從過去參與政治鬥爭的經驗中學會在政治上採取謹慎態度的解放軍是中共政治穩定的助力。解放軍是中國歷史傳統與中共政治特質的極大化反映，擁護中共的封建宮廷政治與排外意識形態，擁有最保守的民族主義與保守主義立場，並擁有最鷹派的看法與最多傾向使用武力的政策意見。但是解放軍能力的不斷精進，也使中共擁有了一定程度的安全感，使得中共願意採取較和平而恫嚇成分較少的路線，並且使其採行先發制人，以解決中共認知到的危機感的行動的可能性減少，同時解放軍提供了中共成為完全的強權的遠景。在中共愈來愈積極參與國際事務之下，解放軍日益成為中共參與國際事務的資產，而中共的積極參與國際事務也成為解放軍進行演練與對外進行觀察接觸的重要機會。中共的崛起和與世界普遍交往，是解放軍以軍購進行現代化與軍售換取軍工體系利益的重大助力。本論文最後針對解放軍在中國崛起中的角色、地位與行動，提出了預測與政策建議。 In order to probe into the role, status and action of the People’s Liberation Army in the rise of China totally, this thesis describes and analyzes rise of china and the role, status and action of PLA in rise of China from the foundation among history of western powers’ rise, China’s historical tradition and politics peculiarity of the Communist Party of China. Then this thesis continues to probe into the rise route of China, the civil-military relations of China, the view of PLA on each important issue in rise of china, and the PLA’s military capability, completes the comprehensive studying about the PLA’s role, status and action in rise of China. Motive power of China’s rise comes from not only the response to threats and interests, but also attempting to take past honor and tradition of China’s being empire core again. This does not deviate from the history of the western powers’ rise. But history of China’s rise could not be defined only with definition comes from the western powers’ rise. Be restricted by the deficiency of China’s national power in being and the conditions of modern strategic environment, ways of China’s rise depends on so far are all peaceful methods. In slogans as “peaceful rise” “high-power diplomacy” “good-neighborliness diplomacy,” China is rising continuously with progressive, non- positive and nonzero-sum methods under China leaders’ strong and continuing will. On the backing of enormous territory and population scale, and the economy growing up constantly, China expands its influence by participating in international community under the gradually “socialized“ look. China’s rising does not depend on allying with other powers to make free-ride, but bases on its own scale advantage and geographical position to rise among the power vacuum which is between powers in the post-Cold War Era. Besides, China still has the problem of separation and separatism. It makes China be unable to concentrate full capacities on competing with other powers. China still can’t own these necessary conditions of rising: maximizing territory, population and resource to aggrandize national power, and making national goals to focus on rise. China still must regard solving the division problem as the most important strategic issue. However, it is possible that the rise way of China will change in the future. It can''t be ignored that China will try to obtain more power by using military means that seems to be able to controlled not to escalate to great war. It can’t be ignored that increase of PLA''s capability will augment the possibility that China makes a reckless move as well. Rise of China creates revolutionary challenge to status quo of power, as well as rise of the western powers. China’s strategic goals developing constantly and China’s keeping memory for the past honor, will result in other countries’ threatened sense continuously. In such rising route of China, the PLA has been tools and policy-making participant more than being sharer of political power. But for establishing authority and consolidating their status, the leaders of CCP still must fully perceive the PLA’s purpose and try to meet the PLA’s request to continue controlling military and maintaining symbiosis of party and military. The PLA is still the pillar of the CCP regime. The PLA which has learned to take prudent attitude toward politics from the experience in political struggle in the past already had been the auxiliary of politics stability in China. The PLA is the extreme reflection of China''s historical tradition and the CCP’s political speciality. The PLA supports the CCP’s feudalism politics and exclusivism ideology, owns the most conservative nationalism and conservatism position, and keeps the views of hawks and policy suggestion of inclining to use military force most. But the sustained progression of the PLA''s capability makes the CCP have sense of safety of a certain degree, makes the CCP have the will to adopt more peaceful and less-bluster routes of competition, and prevents the CCP from adopting preemption strategy to resolve China’s crisis awareness. The PLA has offered the prospect that China will become a complete power. In China’s participating in international affairs more and more actively, the PLA has becomes assets of rising China day by day, and China’s positive participation in international affairs is becoming an important chance that the PLA observes and contacts with the world. China’s rise and associating with world generally, is the thrust of promoting the PLA’s modernization and military-industrial system’s interests by arms deals. Finally, this thesis offers predictions and suggestions of facing the PLA''s role, status and action in rise of China.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of International Affairs And Strategic Studies] Thesis

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