本文研究現今中共之反恐戰略及其未來走向，乃從戰略思考（strategic thinking）的觀點出發，對其反恐戰略之環境、思維、政策、行動作為、未來趨勢提供一個新的解析，並利用戰略思考所具備的總體取向(total orientation)、前瞻取向（forward-looking orientation）、主動取向(active orientation)和務實取向(pragmatic orientation)等面向來評析中共國際及國內的反恐戰略與行動。同時探討中共所採取的反恐戰略對國際格局與世界安全情勢的影響、中共在國際(如聯合國安理會、上海合作組織、東南亞國協等)反恐運作機制與戰略利益、中共國際上反恐戰略之競合，以及其多邊外交、新安全觀與和平崛起等論點與中共反恐戰略的因果關係。最後研析中共反恐戰略對國內形勢及政經環境的影響及現今以「胡溫體制」為核心的第四代集體領導，在中共「十六大」、「十七大」後，對於其營造國內打擊三股勢力的氛圍及組建反恐協調機制、增修反恐法及相關法律、嚴查反洗錢與金融犯罪、建立反恐專責部隊等，皆有深入之論述，另亦希望經由本文相關之研究，期能對我國建構反恐戰略提供一些較為宏觀的思考方向。
Studies conducted by many scholars on terrorism and terrorist activities usually confine themselves to explorations of the theories of international relations or of the definitions of terrorism and terrorist organizations. Less seen are those studies that are focused on the analyses of strategic thinking. Since the 1960’s, terrorism has been commonly developed and expanded around the world and led to lasting and profound impacts on global politics and economy. In order to protect its national interest; expand its international influence; suppress the independent movement of its domestic ethnic groups; build up its counterterrorism mechanism against international terrorism, separatism of ethnic groups, religious extremism; PRC has established cooperation organizations with the United States and other countries; signed various counterterrorism agreements; and routinely conducted joint exercises with ally nations to serve the purpose of “ internationalize”, “legitimize” and “popularize” its counterterrorism strategy. As a result, PRC has listed such independent organizations as “Tibetan Autonomy Movement”, “East Turkistan” as terrorist organizations; “the religious extremism”, Falon Gong, as cult. Furthermore, PRC has passed the “Anti-succession Law” on March 24, 2005 during its 11th People’s Congress as its legal base in seeking the solution for Taiwan’s independence.
In analyzing PRC’s current and future development of counterterrorism, this dissertation begins with the viewpoint of strategic thinking and continues to provide a new analysis on the culture, ways of thinking, policy, measures and future development of PRC’s counterterrorism strategy. This dissertation also analyzes PRC’s international and domestic counterterrorism strategy and actions through total orientation, forward-looking orientation, active orientation and pragmatic orientation, which are essential elements of strategic thinking. At the same time, this dissertation explores the effects of PRC’s counterterrorism strategy on the international community and the overall global security; PRC’s role and its strategic interest in the mechanism of international organizations(such as the Security Council of The UN, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and ASEAN); PRC’s competition and cooperation of its counterterrorism efforts in the international community; the cause and effect between PRC’s multiple diplomacy, new security initiative, peaceful rising and its counterterrorism strategy.
In the end, this dissertation analyzes the impacts of PRC’s counterterrorism strategy on its overall domestic, political and economic situation. In addition, this dissertation analyzes the efforts of the fourth- generation collective leadership, which surrounds “Hu Wen Team”, after the 16th and the 17th National People’s Congress to fight the atmosphere of the “Three Powers”( international terrorism, separatism of ethnic groups and religious extremism) ; establish counterterrorism coordination mechanism; pass and amend counterterrorism law and other related laws; crackdown strictly money laundry and financial crime; build up counterterrorism force. In addition, it is also the intended that the related studies of this dissertation can provide macro-perspective of the counterterrorism strategy to the government as it is in the process of formulation such strategy.