|摘要: ||1991年的波灣戰爭，美國運用巡弋飛彈作為戰場上先制打擊的利器，嚴重摧毀伊拉克的指管通情系統，大幅降低後續攻擊行動中各項武器裝備的損毀與人員傷亡，巡 弋飛彈於戰場上展現的精準攻擊能力，使它一躍為二十一世紀高科技精準武器的新星，其在戰略中的嚇阻能力與在局部戰爭中「殺手鐧」的功能受到矚目。中共由波灣戰爭中亦意識到巡弋飛彈所形成的戰略態勢的轉變，及其對敵人產生的心理及實質威脅，因此近年來亦積極研發及部署巡弋飛彈，企圖藉此反制美國及其盟邦在亞太地區的戰略部署，加強對亞太事務的影響力，進而確保其國家利益。此舉將對台灣及國際構成威脅，因此探討中共巡弋飛彈戰略性嚇阻能力之虛實，實為當前重要課題。|
In the 1991 Persian Gulf War the U.S.A used cruise missiles as first strike weapons in the battlefield. They seriously damaged Iraq’s command, control, communication and intelligence systems and considerably decreased the potential of an enemy response to damage U.S weapons, equipment and personnel. Cruise missiles display precise strike capability in the battlefield making them the new star of 21st century high tech precision weapons, especially their strategic importance as the ultimate deterrent in local tensions or possible conflicts . Mainland China also realizes the strategic transformation created by cruise missiles and understands the psychological and real threat toward the enemy of cruise missiles. Therefore they have vigorously studied, developed and deployed cruise missiles in recent years to attempt to restrain the U.S.A and its alliances’ strategic deployment, in order to reinforce influence on Asian affairs and to maintain its countries rising global position and security. These acts cause threats to Taiwan and international society, so it’s a current issue of great importance to explore the true threat of Mainland China’s cruise missiles strategic deterrence capability.
This study adopts a content analysis method, deductive and inductive method and historical research method to study Mainland China’s knowledge of, and actions with cruise missiles. The characteristics and advantages of their missiles and the situation and progression of Mainland China’s cruise missile development. The study also uses the cardinal factors of deterrence to evaluate the PLA’s (People’s Liberation Army) deterrence capability and simultaneously compare it with the U.S system to find out the differences and capabilities of the two.
The study’s conclusions are as follows:
1.From the strategic theory transformation trend analysis of deterrence, conventional high-tech weapons have gradually turned into a key instrument in the local and asymmetric war.
2.From their observations of contemporary war Mainland China understands the
effectiveness of asymmetric warfare and realizes cruise missiles with their precision strike ability are the ultimate deterrent in maintaining advantage and also an important weapons selection to turn inferiority into a superiority in a conflict.
3.Cruise missiles have several attractive functions, including long firing distance, precision strike, low-altitude raid, mobile deployment, multi-function with different warheads, economic advantage over developing missile defense systems, and suitability to perform surgical strikes. Due to guidance technology’s constant improvement, these are useful points for deterrence. Furthermore in the event that a conflict escalates and deterrence is no longer a strategic option they are still an effective offensive weapon.
4.Cruise missile production costs are relatively low and building up missile defense systems can require ten-times the budget of missile development. The disproportion of attack and defense costs could cause deterrence effectiveness toward an opponent.
5.Cruise missiles have multi-functions with different warheads, besides conventional
warheads they can also equip with equivalent nuclear or bio-chemical warheads. This gives them an astonishing capability for both strategic deterrence and tactics strikes.
6.Using the 3 cardinal factors of deterrence (3C): capability, credibility and communication aspects to examine Mainland China’s strategic ability, we understand Mainland China has already performed strategic deterrence toward relatively inferior countries but none as powerful as the U.S.A. This study considers China’s military power to be less than that of the U.S.A, but after having developed cruise missiles it could be evenly matched with the U.S.A and deter the U.S Army from becoming involved in local asymmetric warfare.