一、雖然1995-96年台海飛彈危機已落幕，並經過了10年時間，在這10年之中，兩岸之間風風雨雨齟齬不斷，雖未爆發重大危機，但並不表示未來台海之間不會發生軍事危機，隨著2004年第11任總統選舉結果產生後，中美台的互動關係，更出現瀕臨結構性轉變的關鍵時刻。 二、中共以往舉行軍事演習通常以低調方式進行，自1995年7月起至12月中共連續在台灣海峽舉行了四波導彈試射及軍事演習，並透過媒體大肆宣傳，恐嚇意味明顯。1996年3月，又在貼近台灣南北兩大城市海域舉行導彈試射及兩波軍事演習，中共此種舉動，使兩岸在經歷了1949、1954、1955及1958年的軍事衝突與危機，維持了40年的和平對峙態勢受到衝擊，並使台海緊張情勢驟然升高。中共此種具有高度危險及挑釁性的導彈試射及軍事演習，引發國際矚目的台海軍事危機。 三、中共發動軍演的目的具有兩個層面。其一是為了嚇阻前總統李登輝追求進一步獨立。其二是警告美國勿改變對台灣之政策，並藉這次軍演展現共軍現代化作戰能力。 Though the missile crisis in the Taiwan Strait during 1995-1996 has passed, it is not the only crisis in the past ten years. Conflicts often happen and no one can guarantee that a conflict in the future will not become a war. After the 11th ROC presidential election in 2004, the relationship between both sides of the Taiwan Strait and America brought forth a series of dramatic changes. Mainland China used to hold military exercises with a low profile. But exercises that were held from July to December 1995 were completely different. Mainland China gave those exercises great publicity in order to threaten Taiwan. In March 1996, Mainland China launched missiles in the area of the in Taiwan Strait close to two main cities of Taiwan, and held military exercises twice.Since 1949, Mainland China and Tainwan have had military crisis in 1954,1955 and 1958.Afterwards,peace has been maintained between the two sides for close to forty years.Now,due to the new threat from Mainland China ,the two sides are on the verge of another military crisis. We believe that Mainland China had two purposes to hold military exercises. First, they wanted to influence of Taiwan independence. Second,they wanted to warn the U.S government insist on a one China policy, and show the ability of the modern PLA. Based on the exercises during 1995-96, the analysis of the factors of the military crisis in the Taiwan strait is the purpose of this study.
