自從美國布希政府於2001年上台之後，過去數十年間一向作為維持全球戰略穩定核心的軍控作為突然間顯得黯然失色。特別是當布希政府宣布將單方面撤出素有全球軍控基石之稱的「反彈道飛彈條約」之際，無疑地給予了國際軍控體系最沈重的打擊。有鑒於此，本論文的主要目的在於探討當前國際軍控機制的進程與發展，以及影響各國在軍控領域選擇合作的原因。而透過對中國軍控政策的案例分析，本文除了將討論中國軍控的內涵與動力之外；另一方面亦將運用國際關係關係三大理論─現實主義、新自由主義與建構主義的分析架構來針對軍控體系的可行性進行評估，並藉此提出有關國際軍控前景的預測。 After several decades as a centerpiece of maintaining the global strategic stability, arms control seems suddenly to be losing its luster. This tendency grew stronger with the arrival of the George W. Bush administration in 2001. When Bush administration announced a unilateral withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the treaty widely considered the conerstone of global arms control, this decision definitely gave the arms control system a serious blow. Therefore, the purpose of this essay is to investigate the processes and development of international arms control as well as the reasons for states'' cooperative behavior in given arms control areas. By using the case of China''s arms control policy, the essay will not only explore the contents and dynamics of China''s position and strategy towards arms control, but evaluate the viability of arms control system under the analytical framework of three contending theories- Realism, Neo-liberalism and Constructism in the international relations. Thereby, we will predict the prospects of arms control further.
