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    Title: 小布希政府中東政策之研究(2001-2006):以和平路線圖(The Road Map)為例
    Other Titles: Studies on U.S. middle-east policy (2001-2006): in case of "The Road Map" under Israeli-Palestinian conflict
    Authors: 余孟樺;Yu, Meng-hua
    Contributors: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
    翁明賢;Wong, Ming-hsien
    Keywords: 以巴衝突;外交政策;九一一事件;和平路線圖;四方小組;撤離計畫;哈瑪斯;Israeli-Palestinian conflict;Foreign policy;911 event;The Road Map;the Quartet;The Disengagement Plan;Hamas
    Date: 2007
    Issue Date: 2010-01-10 23:45:23 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 中東地區是人類文明的發祥地,從古埃及、蘇美文明到近代的阿拉伯帝國與土耳其帝國,跨洲的文明或帝國無不將中東地區視為重要據點,加上其特殊的地理位置與豐富的能源─石油與天然氣,使中東自古至今一直是各方爭奪的戰略要地,也因此發生許多國家之間或是不同文明之間的衝突,以巴衝突即為其一。
    猶太民族與阿拉伯人之間的衝突由來已久,至1948年以色列建國之後正式浮上檯面,其中不僅牽涉以、巴雙方的利益,還有許多大國涉入其中。美國從二十世紀後半葉躍升為世界首屈一指的強權後,其外交政策對各國利益多有影響,尤其是列強在中東地區的權力競逐,在蘇伊士運河危機美國取代英法勢力後,其在該地區的角色更為重要。
    小布希上任初期對中東採取不主動關切、若即若離的政策,即便與美國忠實盟友─以色列切身相關的以阿問題,鑑於前幾任總統努力促成和解最後仍徒勞無功的先例,小布希無意再介入以巴衝突。九一一事件使美國遭逢前所未有的重創,迫使美國政府將外交政策重點著力於阿富汗與伊拉克問題上,美國雖承諾將協助化解以巴衝突,但直到對伊拉克戰爭結束後才有具體方案之提出─《中東和平路線圖》。《和平路線圖》計畫乃是由聯合國、歐盟、美國與俄羅斯組成之四方小組所共同提出,其中詳列以巴和平進程的三個階段,從雙方停火、以色列撤離到建立巴勒斯坦權力機構,最終是巴勒斯坦地位的永久底定,堪稱最完整的以巴和平進程時間表。
    以巴雙方在四方小組的推動與監督下,依照《和平路線圖》的計畫進行相關促進和平之措施;該計畫不僅有四方小組之背書,亦獲得國際社會的普遍認可,伊斯蘭國家多數支持能獲致中東永久和平與穩定的方案,除了少數仇美國家積極反對之外,大多樂觀其成。以色列率先制定撤離計畫,將迦薩走廊與約旦河西岸之猶太移民分批撤離佔領區,但其基於安全理由所築起之安全圍籬,由於隔離了兩地巴勒斯坦人,也隔離了阿猶之間的對話,被各界視為是違反人道主義的措施,即便如此,以方仍舊依其計畫進行撤離;巴勒斯坦方面則承諾致力於打擊恐怖主義,避免以色列撤離時遭到攻擊,並著手進行巴人內部權力機構的建立。
    2006年1月,哈瑪斯贏得巴勒斯坦國會選舉之後,其組成之新政府否決了阿巴斯政府時期一切對外政策,以巴和平進程連帶受到影響,以色列再次受到巴人激進份子攻擊,因而中斷撤離計畫並開始積極防禦,各國亦中止對巴勒斯坦之援助,中東和平再度蒙上陰影。美國長期以來致力於中東和平進程之努力再度遭受挫敗,小布希團隊在面臨以巴衝突再度白熱化的情勢,無論是美國內部的利益團體壓力與人事運作,抑或多邊的外交政策轉變,都值得吾人持續觀察。
    The Middle East is the birthplace of human kind’s civilization. Almost every great civilization took the Middle East as a critical foothold, no matter Ancient Egypt, Sumer, the Arab Empire, or Ottoman Turkey Empire. Because of its geographic location and full of petroleum and nature gas, the Middle East is also an important place in strategy. These are the reasons which caused conflicts between different countries and civilizations - including Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
    The conflict between Jews and Arab has existed for a long time and became worse after 1948 - the time Israel declared its independent. The Arab-Jews conflict includes not only the interests of Israel or Palestine but also other great powers. American’s foreign policies have affected other countries since the late 20th century. In the Middle East, America took a quite important role after the Suez Crisis because it replaced the influence of British and France.
    George W. Bush didn’t pay more attention on the Middle East in the beginning of his term. The 911event made America suffer a greatest damage, which they couldn’t ever image. Therefore, the Bush administration put all their efforts on Afghanistan and Iraqi problem instead of solving Israeli-Palestinian conflict that they’ve promised. After the Iraqi war on 2003, “The Road Map” was addressed by “the Quartet” - composed of the United Nations, the European Union, the United States, and Russia. This plan includes three parts of the peace progress of Israel and Palestine - appealing both side to cease fire, Israel withdraw from the occupied territory, the build-up of Palestinian National Authority, and the final establishment of Palestine status. The plan is the most complete one than every arrangement made before.
    “The Road Map” was supported by the international society including many Islamic countries except some countries those always opposed America, for example, Syria. According to “The Road Map”, Israel and Palestine have made several policies to improve the peace progress. But all of those efforts were suspended since the Hamas won the congress election on January 2006. The Hamas denied all agreements signed by the Abbas administration. This enforced Israel to stop “The Disengagement Plan” and caused international society to break down the assistants. Under the pressure from internal interest groups and external transformation of foreign policy, the worse of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict make the Bush Administration faced another challenge.
    Appears in Collections:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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