| 摘要: | 自秦漢以降的大一統總體結構於東漢時代崩壞起，軍閥割據便成為公元二世紀末至三世紀中的常態，而曹魏、蜀漢、孫吳三王朝之所以能在公元221年各為一方偏霸，形成鼎足式的權力均衡狀態，其實正是王朝軍政首腦們策定戰略、執行戰略之後的成果。
是故本論文將以蜀漢王朝為研究主體，並揉合歷史研究、伊士頓的「政治系統理論」跟薄富爾的「總體戰略論」，建立一個歷史與戰略的綜合分析系統。隨後再根據脈絡，先探討秦漢大一統總體結構的先天缺陷，以及公元一世紀與二世紀的自然災害和人為因素如何加速東漢大一統帝國的崩解；其次指出漢末割據局面之下的環境與結構狀況，以及劉備武裝集團－－即蜀漢王朝之前身－－的成立由來；接著再探討劉備與諸葛亮如何因應環境之變化，並兼顧集團生存發展、扶匡漢室，以及恢復大一統總體結構的需求，制定集團的總體戰略，最後則透過歷史記錄，檢視王朝首腦們執行戰略的過程，同時找出王朝不能興盛的關鍵因素。
經研究後，筆者以為：蜀漢一朝之所以不能興盛，關鍵實出在於對孫吳外交關係的輕忽大意和沒有適度放緩擴張政策，以致集團奪取益州後師老軍疲，並大意失荊州。如果劉備能及時發現問題，改採穩重路線應對局面，蜀漢其實不會在他身故之後陷入長期弱勢，因而讓諸葛亮冒極大的風險進行北伐。
The unification of China marked the history in Chin Dynasty and China was continued to be ruled by the empire of Han Dynasty under one regime. But in late Eastern Han Dynasty, around the end of 2nd century to the middle of the 3rd century, the unified Mainland China gradually to decline and was in an era dominated by chaotic infighting between warlords. The Three Kingdoms period preceded and the Tsao- Wei, Shu-Han, and Sun-Wu kingdoms came to power in 221 A.D., which began a time of legendary generals and advisors, whose legacies in leaderships, politics, military strategies, and foreign affairs marked an important chapter in Chinese history.
This thesis is focused on the rise and fall of Shu-Han Kingdom and the author would like to estab-lish a system of historical and strategic analysis based on approaches of historical study, "Political Sys-tems Theory" by David Easton and "Total Strategy Theory" by Andre Beaufre.
The thesis is composed in four main categories: First is the analysis of both advantages and dis-advantages of unification and standardized China; and the natural disasters and man-made calamities led to a faster fall of Eastern Han Dynasty, which ushered the growth of The Three Kingdoms period. Second part is the historical study on the foundation of warlords at the time, and Liu Bei''s rise to power. Third, the study of Liu Bei and Chu-Ko Liang''s strategies to sustain the unification of the Eastern Han Empire before its fall and the growth of Shu-Han Kingdom. Lastly, the study of Shu-Han political and military strategies, and domestic policies. Most import of all, the reasons of failing to gain power and reunite China.
In the author''s opinions, the ultimate reason for the fall of Shu-Han Kingdom laid on the careless foreign policies to Sun-Wu Kingdom and the excessive military expeditions. The loss of the State of Yi was an irrecoverable consequence for the cause. If only Liu Bei had foreseen the problems a couple of years ago, the northward expeditions, followed his death, led by Chu-Ko Liang might have changed the history in China. |
