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    Title: 軍事戰略規劃中想定設計之研究
    Other Titles: Scenario design in military strategy planning
    Authors: 蔡行健;Tsai, Hsing-chien
    Contributors: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班
    黃介正;Huang, Alexander Chieh-cheng
    Keywords: 軍事戰略;想定設計;戰略規劃;Military Strategy Planning;Scenario Design;Scenario Planning
    Date: 2009
    Issue Date: 2010-01-10 23:44:21 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 一、軍事戰略規劃方式十分多元,軍事戰略於規劃策略方案時,均不脫離以潛在威脅為想定的背景;軍事戰略規劃所建構的戰略執行能力,也以達成「想定」目的為主。本研究係以軍事戰略想定規劃方法之設計為範圍,採文獻分析法(Literature Review)為研究方法,研究架構是先釐清軍事戰略規劃與想定設計之關係、功能及定位,再區分傳統安全威脅與非傳統安全威脅二部份探討台海安全的想定設計,及其對軍事戰略的衝擊與影響。
    二、用想定做為一種戰略規劃的方法,其意涵在於理解與解析所面對的不確定環境,以制定至當戰略並決定備選方案與執行是項戰略的計畫;由於不確定環境無法預測,所以必須透過工具及技術──想定的發展,與戰略規劃相鏈結。
    三、傳統安全威脅之想定設計,在使負責國防事務的軍、文職人員,深入思考去其所身處的環境及軍隊戰力的發展方向。就當前的台海安全情勢的發展與演變,向遠程的兩岸互動情勢推估,軍事戰略規劃之想定設計,須結合國家安全戰略規劃的基本利基──政治、經濟,可能需要儘早起步相關「兵力結構轉型、軍事互信實務、遠程建軍規劃、軍事交流」等為主軸的研究與想定設計,前置展開戰略規劃與準備。
    四、在非傳統安全想定的設計中,可以得知受到非傳統安全的威脅,是由「人」導向「機制」的議題。選擇天然災害及資訊安全等非傳統安全威脅,作為軍事戰略規劃想定設計研究,係著眼於台灣受自然環境及人文因素的影響,天然災害愈趨愈烈。而於資訊安全方面,則是因為每個軍人都置身於資訊網路世界,軍人無時不刻無不面臨到資訊安全的問題。
    五、軍事戰略規劃是對遠程的未來的規劃,想定設計須具有廣泛性並選擇衝擊性大者列入優先考慮,依「假如……會如何」命題,促使戰略規劃更具因應未來變化的彈性,使能導引國防部及各軍種面對未來可能的場景,早作準備。
    1.Military Strategy Planning methods can be conducted in numerous forms. When conducting a military strategic plan, potential threats are most likely be used as the scenario. The capability of military strategy should also aim to reach the scenario’s objective. The scope of this research is Military Strategy Planning- Scenario Planning- by using the Literature Review approach. The research structure first formulates the relation, function and position between strategic planning and scenario design. Following, discusses scenario design by traditional and non-traditional threats in the Taiwan Strait as well as its impact towards military strategy.
    2.The purpose of using scenarios as a means of strategy planning is to understand and analyze the uncertainty in our environment and furthermore conceive appropriate strategies and determine the options and execution plan. Due to the fact that uncertainties in the environment are unpredictable, therefore, various means and techniques, such as scenario development, should be used in conjunction with strategic planning.
    3.The scenario design of traditional security threats is to allow national defense personnel, to contemplate its current environment and direction of military forces development. As per today’s situation in the Strait, the scenario design of military strategy should integrate national strategy planning’s niche- politics and economy; also, to research and conduct scenario design on "forces structure transformation, military confidence building, long-term forces programming and military exchange” to open strategy planning and preparation ahead of time.
    4.The scenario design of non-traditional security threats can help to recognize that non-traditional security threats are issues lead from "human” to “mechanism”. Taiwan is increasingly encountering natural disasters; also, all military personnel are forced to face information security problems on a daily basis. That is why this research chooses these two spheres as examples of non-traditional threats.
    5.Military Strategy Planning should place long-term objectives into consideration, and scenario design should be extensive and choose scenarios with the greatest impact as top priority. Follow the “what…if” premise, to make strategic planning flexible to future changes and help the MND and the Services to be better prepared for the future.
    Appears in Collections:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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