朝鮮半島安全情勢下的預防外交 : 兼論中共的角色與態度

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Title:	朝鮮半島安全情勢下的預防外交 : 兼論中共的角色與態度
Other Titles:	The preventive diplomacy on the Korean peninsula, and discuss the role and attitude of the PRC
Authors:	吳洲桐;Wu, Zhou-tong
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班洪陸訓;Hung, Lu-hsun
Keywords:	預防外交;信心建立措施;核武危機;管道與機制;安全政策;preventive diplomacy;Confidence-Building Measures;nuclear crisis;mechanism;secure policy
Date:	2005
Issue Date:	2010-01-10 23:44:04 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	朝鮮半島分合的發展動向，以及美朝之間持續的爭端，如果沒有一個居中協調的介面，可能引發朝鮮半島之衝突，甚至影響整個東北亞地區。本文之前提即是對該區域有關鍵影響力的國家（特別是中共），如果不採取預防外交的措施消弭爭端的潛因，將使該區域爆發進一步的衝突。具體而言，本文之目的，即在探討「預防外交」是否有助於處理朝鮮半島衝突，以及中共在北韓核武危機中扮演何種角色。預防外交隨著冷戰結束有了新的活力。預防外交提供了實際可運作的安全措施，在現實的外交政策領域中，預防外交可視為從和平的觀點出發的外交政策。而從朝鮮半島安全情勢之演變可以看出，南北韓之間的潛在衝突點與緊張關係雖已獲得舒緩，且有進一步和解的機會。不過各個大國之間的戰略利益衝突卻有升高的可能，因此預防外交在這個地區顯得特別重要。也因此自1990年代東北亞地區逐漸興起預防外交的管道與機制。朝鮮半島的預防外交，雖可藉由如六方會談的多邊合作國際體制來執行。但就解決北韓核武問題來說，六方會談只是一個途徑而不是最終目的，換句話說，六方會談目前僅是一個功能性的溝通渠道，尚未形成機制。中共針對兩韓近期分合的情勢，以及北韓的核武政策，採取特使斡旋、高層會晤與多邊會談等多種的預防外交作為，但如以預防外交中各方同意的原則來看，中共斡旋處理南北韓可能的衝突，其成果是可以期待的；但在北韓核武危機方面，其涉及的國家甚多，如果無法平衡各國自身的利益，各項進行的預防外交成效將會受限，頂多也只是成為維持區域平衡的手段之一而已。 In view of the developing situation of separation or combination in the Korean Peninsula and the continued disputes between the U.S. and North Korea, if there is no country playing the negotiating role, it may cause conflicts in the Korean Peninsula, even influence on the North East Asian Area. The aim of this thesis is to discuss if “the Preventive Diplomacy” could help to deal with the conflicts in the Korean Peninsula, and what kind of role China should play in Pyongyang’s nuclear crisis. Since the end of the Cold War, the preventive diplomacy further got quite a bit of vigor. It provided some practicable measures. the Preventive Diplomacy was also regarded as a peaceful policy in real diplomatic field. From the secure developing situation on the Korean Peninsula, It appeared that the potential conflicts between the two Koreas has been appeased. but the disputes has arisen from the major powerful countries，therefore the Preventive Diplomacy has became more important. Although the Preventive Diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula could carry out by the international multilateral cooperative means（i.e., the Six-party talks）, however, the Six-party talks should be an approach, not a ultimate purpose for solving the Korean nuclear issue .In other words, the Six-party talks is only a communicated channel ,not be a mechanism. In the light of the developing situation of separation or combination on the Korean Peninsula, and the continued nuclear disputes between the U.S. and North Korea, China adopted the actions of sending diplomatic envoy, high-level officer’s meet and multilateral talks with other connected countries. if we think over the consentaneous principles of the preventive diplomacy, China may have attained to this goal for alleviating both Korea’s conflicts, but it is difficult to solve North Korean nuclear crisis if China could not balance the profits involving in all countries.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of International Affairs And Strategic Studies] Thesis

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