| Abstract: | 一、儘管北京當局極為重視台灣的動向，但是優先問題為政治改革與經濟改革間的辯證關係、經濟改革的落實、經濟發展的過程中社會壓力的處理等，這才是新世紀初葉的大事，惟中共目前仍積極加強軍事現代化，此對我國及區域的威脅是存在的。事實上，中共從科索沃戰爭中又得到再次的警醒與重要的啟發，其「新三打三防」即為重點加強項目。同時，延續「九五計畫」的努力，「十五計畫」帶動了新世紀前五年的軍事建設，二位數成長的軍費挹注及第三、四代領導人的支持，國防硬體方面的陸續完成與提前到位，再加上共軍對第二次波灣戰爭的體認，深感共軍要跟上此堪稱為人類第三次軍事變革的腳步，加速由機械化部隊轉型為資訊化部隊的跨越式發展，要效法美國等先進國家具有打贏信息化條件下的局部戰爭能力。
二、其中尤為各國所矚目的軍備發展應屬二砲部隊、快反部隊、航太科技及海空軍先進機艦的獲得且服役，均為爾後戰略發揮上的有效籌碼。而目前復於「十一五計畫」中國防發展戰略的指導下，配合若干軟體上的自覺與改革，如強化人員素質、訓練力度及科技攻關，預判在無任何外在因素干擾及國內環境相對平和的前提下，將可達其所設定之階段性目標。基此，在其強烈的民族主義意識至上及以黨領軍的極權制度下，軍事力量的運用及目標將成為各國關注焦點。
三、在兩岸相互懷有相當敵意的環境中，我國應如何因應轉化，此攸關國家安全與人民福祉，為政者不可不察也！
Althouth Beijing is concerned with Taiwan''s development, theirpriorities at the beginning of this century are problems related to its political and economic reforms,and the management of the social stress management resulting from its rapid economic development . Moreover, at present, China places great emphasis on its military modernization, which is becoming a threat to Taiwan and the neighboring countries. In fact, learning from Kosovo War, China has come up with the so-called “New Three Offensive and Three Defensive. ” Meanwhile, following the 9th Five-Year Plan, the 10th Five-Year Plan is forging ahead with a two-digit budget growth,the completion of a series of national defense projects in recent years ,and the full support of China''s third- and fourth- generation leaders. Inspired by the United States of America and its allies, China aims at building advanced armed forces that are equipped with modern information technology and capable of winning regional wars.
The development of China''s missle forces,fast-reation forces,space technology,and the procurement of advanced airplanes,warships for its air and naval forces have caught the world''s attention.Under the directive of China''s 11th Five-Year Plan, China plans to reform its organization,
enhance the quality of its personnel,and it is estimated that it could attain its goals if there were no outside inference.With a strong nationalism and a totalitarian government controlled by the Communist Party,how China will use its military power will be the world''s major concern.
With intense Hostility between Taiwan and China,policy makers should exercise great caution when dealing with the changes in China''s military development so that our national security and the public''s well-being will not be compromised. |
