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    題名: 秦帝國衰亡原因之研究 : 以總體戰略觀點分析
    其他題名: Case study of Chin empire fallen : the perspective of total strategy
    作者: 張永樂;Chang, Yung-lo
    貢獻者: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
    施正權;Shih, Cheng-chuan
    關鍵詞: 秦帝國;秦朝;總體戰略;Chin Empire;fallen;Total Strategy
    日期: 2009
    上傳時間: 2010-01-10 23:42:50 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 秦自商鞅變法圖強起,經過百餘年的蓄積,傳至秦王政(即後來之秦始皇)時國力已達鼎盛,因此,自西元前230年起,短短九年內便完成了統一。秦之統一中國,就戰略典型上來看,要算是一次標準的「長期鬥爭」模式。此種「長期鬥爭」是一種真正總體性的大戰略,包括政治、經濟、軍事、外交等方面都在內。秦成功的要素便在於其大戰略的持續性和一貫性。不過,如此成功的大戰略,卻無法長久維繫帝國的命脈,使得秦帝國在統一後短短十五年即覆滅。關於秦衰亡的原因歷世歷代都有不同的說法,及至現代,國內外學者對此問題依舊眾說紛紜,但針對此事件的討論,不是只注重現象的描述,便是偏重某一層面的解釋與分析,缺乏整體性的探討。基於此,本研究採行文獻分析法及歷史研究法,目的在於敘述秦統一後所面對的內外環境,並整理出秦總體戰略的規劃;其次,評析秦的政治、經濟、心理與軍事四方面的政策,探討其對應新局面所做的改變成效為何;第三,藉由總體戰略理論的架構,系統性地分析秦帝國各方面戰略的缺失,以便找出秦衰亡的真正原因。
    在研究當中即發現,秦在政治方面採行中央集權的皇帝制度,地方上配合郡縣制度管理,雖能有效統治帝國,但在繼承制度有缺失的情形下,秦二世得以利用手段取得皇位。二世繼位後的諸多政策,破壞皇帝制度運作良好所需的廷議制度及秦累代建立的人才庫,在面對帝國末年的叛亂時,便由於統治機制的崩潰而無法有效因應。而在對匈奴與百越的戰爭中,由於戰前評估失誤,雖能取得戰爭的勝利,但其後為維持成果所投入的人力物力,和新增疆域所能獲得的資源不成比例,使得秦戰略資源耗費過多,形成帝國內部不穩定的因子。秦在經濟方面於林業、畜牧業、鹽鐵業等方面採行多種政策,配合帝國的道路、水利等產業建設,有效將天然資源轉換成國力,而秦的農業、幣制改革,也取得一定的成效。但在連年戰爭、興築宮室及多方轉輸的消耗下,超出秦經濟所能負擔的程度,導致民怨四起。
    秦在軍事方面擁有多樣化的兵種,先進的裝備,變化多端的陣型,配合訓練有素的軍隊,使得秦軍成為統一戰爭中的關鍵因素,但在帝國末年的平亂戰爭中,由於中期戰略行動錯估情勢,使得後期情勢急轉直下,在秦軍投降項羽後,帝國軍事力量瓦解,使得秦再無抵抗反抗勢力的力量。秦在心理方面的攻勢心理戰略,由於強勢推展統一法令,加上焚書事件的影響,並沒有辦法達到爭取民心的結果,雖然在關中地區的守勢心理戰略相當成功,但軍功爵制帶來的社會階級化,造成關東與關中人民矛盾對立,反而激化人民的反抗心理。秦的諸多政策分開來看都有其成效,但在推展時太過強勢引發民怨,加上對國家資源分配不當,導致國力過度消耗,其後在平亂戰爭中,除軍事力量外其餘諸政策無法配合,使得叛亂力量一再地的擴大,最終造成帝國的滅亡。
    Started from the Sang-yang Reform, after more than one hundred year storing up, Chin’s national power has been in a period of great prosperity when Ying-cheng ascended the . Therefore, Chin united other nations in only nine years since B.C.230. Chin’s unity could be viewed as a standard “long-term conflict” model in strategic aspect. The “long-term conflict” is a real integral strategy, which integrate politics, economy, military, and diplomacy. The essential factor of Chin’s success is the continuity and the consistency of its strategy. However, this successful strategy couldn’t maintain Chin’s lifeblood, contrarily; Chin has come to the end in only 15 years. Regarding Chin’s degeneracy, there are a lot of arguments from a very long time even till now, but all the arguments either only emphasized on the description of the phenomenon or one-sidedly emphasized on the explanation and analysis of a specific perspective. Based on the above statement, this research utilize documents analysis and historical research to firstly describe the environment Chin faced after the unity and sort out the plan of Chin’s integral strategy. Secondly, this research analyze Chin’s strategy in four aspects, political, economical, psychological, and martial, and then probe into the effects of the changes while Chin facing the new situation. Thirdly, systematically analyze the flaws of all Chin’s strategies by using the frame of the Total Strategy theory to find out the real cause of Chin’s degeneracy.
    The finding is that Chin used both centralization emperor system and prefectures and counties system politically, though this strategy ruled the empire effectively, the flaw of succession system made Hu-hai obtain the throne by tricks. The policy Hu-hai practiced after succeeding to the throne ruined the senate and think tank, which are emperor system needed for its well-arrangement. When facing the revolt during the last years of the empire, the collapse of the dominion caused Chin hard to react to the revolt effectively. During the war with Xiongnu and Yue peoples, though Chin had the victory, the mistake of the prewar evaluation made Chin need to invest in too many manpower and material sources, which couldn’t be proportioned to the sources they gained after occupying the new territory, and then caused the unstable internal political situation. Economically, Chin practiced varied policies in forestry, animal husbandry, and salt iron industry, and also tied in empire constructions to effectively transfer natural resources into national power, in addition, the reformation of Chin’s agriculture and currency system also gained well effects. However, the consumption of the years-running wars, palace build-up, and transportation made Chin’s economy overloaded that raised social grievances.
    Militarily, Chin owned varied divisions of its military forces, advanced hardware, variable array, and well-disciplined army, which made Chin’s army a key element of the united wars. Nevertheless, during the suppress war of the last years of the empire, due to mistake made at the middle stage, the situation of the last phase turned down rapidly. After Chin’s army surrendering to Xiang Yu, the force of the empire collapsed and made Chin lose the power to resist the rebels. Psychologically, the forceful promotion of the unify enactment and the effects of the Book burning event caused Chin’s failure in gaining the feelings of the citizenry. Although the defensive psychology strategy succeeded in Guanzhong, the social class from demarches caused the opposing position between the people of Guandong and Guanzhong which aroused people’s rebels. Chin’s many policies were effective, but the public anger from forceful promotions and the improper resource allocation both caused the over-consumption of the national power. In the later suppress war, the force couldn’t co-operate with other policies which made the power of the armed rebellion expanded again and again, and finally brought out the end of the empire.
    顯示於類別:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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