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    Title: 秦帝國衰亡原因之研究 : 以總體戰略觀點分析
    Other Titles: Case study of Chin empire fallen : the perspective of total strategy
    Authors: 張永樂;Chang, Yung-lo
    Contributors: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
    施正權;Shih, Cheng-chuan
    Keywords: 秦帝國;秦朝;總體戰略;Chin Empire;fallen;Total Strategy
    Date: 2009
    Issue Date: 2010-01-10 23:42:50 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 秦自商鞅變法圖強起,經過百餘年的蓄積,傳至秦王政(即後來之秦始皇)時國力已達鼎盛,因此,自西元前230年起,短短九年內便完成了統一。秦之統一中國,就戰略典型上來看,要算是一次標準的「長期鬥爭」模式。此種「長期鬥爭」是一種真正總體性的大戰略,包括政治、經濟、軍事、外交等方面都在內。秦成功的要素便在於其大戰略的持續性和一貫性。不過,如此成功的大戰略,卻無法長久維繫帝國的命脈,使得秦帝國在統一後短短十五年即覆滅。關於秦衰亡的原因歷世歷代都有不同的說法,及至現代,國內外學者對此問題依舊眾說紛紜,但針對此事件的討論,不是只注重現象的描述,便是偏重某一層面的解釋與分析,缺乏整體性的探討。基於此,本研究採行文獻分析法及歷史研究法,目的在於敘述秦統一後所面對的內外環境,並整理出秦總體戰略的規劃;其次,評析秦的政治、經濟、心理與軍事四方面的政策,探討其對應新局面所做的改變成效為何;第三,藉由總體戰略理論的架構,系統性地分析秦帝國各方面戰略的缺失,以便找出秦衰亡的真正原因。
    Started from the Sang-yang Reform, after more than one hundred year storing up, Chin’s national power has been in a period of great prosperity when Ying-cheng ascended the . Therefore, Chin united other nations in only nine years since B.C.230. Chin’s unity could be viewed as a standard “long-term conflict” model in strategic aspect. The “long-term conflict” is a real integral strategy, which integrate politics, economy, military, and diplomacy. The essential factor of Chin’s success is the continuity and the consistency of its strategy. However, this successful strategy couldn’t maintain Chin’s lifeblood, contrarily; Chin has come to the end in only 15 years. Regarding Chin’s degeneracy, there are a lot of arguments from a very long time even till now, but all the arguments either only emphasized on the description of the phenomenon or one-sidedly emphasized on the explanation and analysis of a specific perspective. Based on the above statement, this research utilize documents analysis and historical research to firstly describe the environment Chin faced after the unity and sort out the plan of Chin’s integral strategy. Secondly, this research analyze Chin’s strategy in four aspects, political, economical, psychological, and martial, and then probe into the effects of the changes while Chin facing the new situation. Thirdly, systematically analyze the flaws of all Chin’s strategies by using the frame of the Total Strategy theory to find out the real cause of Chin’s degeneracy.
    The finding is that Chin used both centralization emperor system and prefectures and counties system politically, though this strategy ruled the empire effectively, the flaw of succession system made Hu-hai obtain the throne by tricks. The policy Hu-hai practiced after succeeding to the throne ruined the senate and think tank, which are emperor system needed for its well-arrangement. When facing the revolt during the last years of the empire, the collapse of the dominion caused Chin hard to react to the revolt effectively. During the war with Xiongnu and Yue peoples, though Chin had the victory, the mistake of the prewar evaluation made Chin need to invest in too many manpower and material sources, which couldn’t be proportioned to the sources they gained after occupying the new territory, and then caused the unstable internal political situation. Economically, Chin practiced varied policies in forestry, animal husbandry, and salt iron industry, and also tied in empire constructions to effectively transfer natural resources into national power, in addition, the reformation of Chin’s agriculture and currency system also gained well effects. However, the consumption of the years-running wars, palace build-up, and transportation made Chin’s economy overloaded that raised social grievances.
    Militarily, Chin owned varied divisions of its military forces, advanced hardware, variable array, and well-disciplined army, which made Chin’s army a key element of the united wars. Nevertheless, during the suppress war of the last years of the empire, due to mistake made at the middle stage, the situation of the last phase turned down rapidly. After Chin’s army surrendering to Xiang Yu, the force of the empire collapsed and made Chin lose the power to resist the rebels. Psychologically, the forceful promotion of the unify enactment and the effects of the Book burning event caused Chin’s failure in gaining the feelings of the citizenry. Although the defensive psychology strategy succeeded in Guanzhong, the social class from demarches caused the opposing position between the people of Guandong and Guanzhong which aroused people’s rebels. Chin’s many policies were effective, but the public anger from forceful promotions and the improper resource allocation both caused the over-consumption of the national power. In the later suppress war, the force couldn’t co-operate with other policies which made the power of the armed rebellion expanded again and again, and finally brought out the end of the empire.
    Appears in Collections:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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