中共和諧外交下「核武威懾」戰略之研究

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Title:	中共和諧外交下「核武威懾」戰略之研究
Other Titles:	Research of nuclear deterrence strategy under China's harmonious diplomacy
Authors:	唐則義;Tang, Tsi-yi
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班翁明賢;Wong, Ming-hsien
Keywords:	和諧外交;核威懾;最低威懾;限制性威懾;Harmonious Diplomacy;Nuclear Deterrence;Minimum Deterrence;Limited Deterrence
Date:	2009
Issue Date:	2010-01-10 23:42:27 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	環顧國際戰略環境，面對亞太形勢的快速改變，中共認知外交戰略調整之必要性，同時堅持國防現代化建設，企圖建構足夠的核武力量，有效發揮核武威懾之效果，以反制美國及其盟邦在亞太地區的軍事部署，加深對於涉入亞太事務的影響力。中共推動「和諧外交」政策，亦不放棄軍事核武威懾力量。首先，從中共軍事戰略思想結合核武力量發展歷程為起始點，探究中共如何建構核武威懾戰略；另就現階段國際環境，剖析中共核武威懾力量發展現況及趨勢，探討中共如何藉由核武威懾戰略以確保國家最大利益；最後，中共在「和諧外交」的框架下積極發展提昇核武力量，評估對國際環境、亞太區域及台海安全所造成之衝擊與影響。本文總結研究認為：一、中共操弄「和」、「戰」兩手策略，構建核武威懾戰略新思維。二、研判中共可能改變「不首先使用核武」政策與調整核戰略。三、中共「航天科技」結合「核武現代化」，值得關注。四、核武效應持續擴散，引發軍備競賽。五、中共核武威懾，區域強權將重新組合。六、因應中共核武威懾，台灣必須在國家整體安全考量之下，建立一套完整的戰略思維。 Looks around the international strategic environment, and facing of the fast changes of the Asia -Pacific circumstance, China acknowledges the needs of adjusting its diplomacy strategy. Meanwhile, constructing the modernized military defense and developing the nuclear force are the effect and also affect of the deterrence for the United States and its alliance of the military deployment in Asia-Pacific region. China does not to give up its nuclear deterrence power while it impetus the “Harmonious Diplomacy” policy. First, starts with the history of China’s military strategy of unclear weapon and the thoughts of the strategy. Inquisition China constructs its nuclear deterrence strategy. Analysis develops and trends of China’s nuclear power. Discussing how China to protect its best benefits under the unclear strategies. Finally, speculating the impact and influence of the Asia-Pacific region and Taiwan Strait’s safety under China’s “Harmonious Diplomacy” policy that aggressively improving its nuclear force power. Concluded the research as follow: 1.China operating “peace” and “war” two-side policy. Constructing as thoughts of nuclear deterrence strategy. 2.Evaluating from China ”Not to first use unclear weapon” policy to adjusting its “the minimum deterrence “strategy. 3.Attentions on combing China’s “Aviation Science and technology” and “modernized the nuclear weapon” policy. 4.Proliferation on international unclear weapon causing arms race. 5.China’s unclear deterrence causing reform of region’s power. 6.Under the threatening of China’s unclear deterrence, Taiwan must considerates national security and establish complete strategic thought.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of International Affairs And Strategic Studies] Thesis

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