| 摘要: | 石油在現代世界中扮演著重要的角色。舉凡人類文明的發展、政治、經濟、軍事，無不和石油的發掘、開採與使用有著密切的關聯。1973年的石油危機已經證實了這一點。而在石油日益短缺的廿一世紀的未來，一個國家能源政策實和其國家安全與發展戰略政策息息相關。
由於中國大陸經濟持續的發展，其在石油能源方面的需求日益加大。自1993年起，中國大陸已經成為石油淨進口國，到了2004年時，中國大陸已經躍居於世界大二大石油消耗國，但是在能源政策先天上的弱點、以及超乎常規的經濟之快速成長，使得中共的石油政策產生若干隱憂，對於21世紀中共國家戰略的發展，造成了相當程度的影響。於是，中共中央遂確立了新的石油安全政策，以「多元化」、「走出去」為重心，並強調強大海軍的發展，以確保其石油的來源不受威脅。
從地緣戰略的理論看，中國大陸處於背陸向海的位置，時具備了向陸與向海發展的先決條件，只是傳統上中國人以大陸為中心的世界觀，造成國家的封閉，發展停滯，甚至遭受西方帝國主義的侵略。中國大陸的學者以地緣戰略理論為基礎，分析討論中國大陸現接段各學者對於以中國國家發展為中心，所建構之新地緣戰略。以較著名的「三環論」、「三線論」為例證，顯示了中共未來企圖走向海洋、利用海洋的戰略意圖，這已經成為一種共識。在這種氛圍之下，中共的新油氣地緣政治，又讓中共的能源政策，不得不將重心放在緣海的開發與利用之上。無論是東海、南海的蘊藏油田的開發、進口原油的航道的確保，都必須依賴海洋。
由於海洋的開發與利用，在中共的21世紀的石油安全政策中，將扮演極重要的角色，但是東海與南海地區，都隱伏了和日本、東協諸國的主權爭議。而其極度依賴的來自中東的進口石油，必須通過具戰略性的麻六甲海峽，才能到達中國大陸。這些可能發生的爭端與隱憂，都會對未來中共石油安全政策推動時，產生或多或少的影響。
受到毛澤東人民戰爭論的影響，自中共建政以來，其海軍建軍思想一直都侷限在近岸與潛海地區。到了鄧小平時期的改革開放階段，在劉華清的指導下，為了確保中國大陸的經濟發展，其海權思想終於產生了變革，開始走向遠洋；其中設定了第一島鏈、第二島鏈為其海軍建軍之階段目標。由於海權的要素中強調對外貿易與經濟發展，所以中共今日以發展經濟為第一優先，所以海上武力的精進依照海權理論，必然是和國家的經濟建設有著相輔相成的緊密關聯。
嚴格說來，中共是先有海軍戰略思想，爾後才逐步發展海權思想。從其1949年建政以來，一直到鄧小平時代，確立了海軍走向遠洋是與其經濟發展相輔相成的因素，中共海軍才正式在劉華清的領導下，開創出屬於中共的海權思想。之後又受到1991年波斯灣戰爭的重大衝擊，開始進行其「高技術條件下之局部戰爭」的戰略規劃，走向現代化。而在進入21世紀的階段，為了因應中國大陸經濟的持續飛快發展，以及其在石油安全政策上的弱點，中共海軍的現代化又是其中關鍵的因素。
Petrol in modern world becomes more and more important. In the area of international policy, economics, and military affairs, petrol always plays the vital role. We could get such a lessons from the first petrol crisis in 1973. In the 21st century, we may foresee that, petrol would go to the day of exhaustion, so the national security policy of petrol directly influences the national security.
Due to the fast economical development of China, the requirement of great quantity of petrol grows to the summit. Since 1993, China became the import, even in 2004, becoming the second great petrol consumer. China’s previous national petroleum policy was relatively vulnerable, and the requirement of petrol is great, China’s Strategy of national development will be influenced by the weak national petrol policy. So in 2004, the authority of Chinese communist party made a statement for it future petrol policy in 21st century which had two points, “multiple” and “going out”. First of all, China have to build up a mighty navy fleet.
From the view of Geo-strategy, China stands on the position which sits on the edge of continent and face the ocean. It provides good opportunities for China to be either landpower or seapower. The China scholars had searched out several geo-strategic theories: “The Three Rings” and “The Three Lines”. Both theories emphasized that China must go onto the ocean and use it. China has to develop herself as the seapower. The so-called “petroleum geo-strategy” of China made China should pay much more attention to the sea. Unfortunately, in East China Sea and South China Sea, there are strong disputes among China and other nations. China’s most important petroleum sea transport line from middle east, must go through the strait of Malacca, which is easier to be cut off by any other hostile nations.
Under the guide of Mao’s People’s War, The PLA navy contained itself on the coast and the brown sea for several decades. In the Time of Teng Shaou-Pin, in order to keep the economical development of China in Steadiness and firmness, PLA Admiral Liu Hua-Chin intended to reform the PLA navy from coastal into “blue water navy”. The classical sea power theory, which draws close the ties between strong naval forces and the benefit of economical interests closely, make the PLA navy’s development go on the road of the traditional seapower. In 21st century, PLA navy’s mission focuses on the issues of energy security, it becomes the good reason for China to develop her sea power. |
