第一次波斯灣戰爭後中共軍事發展之研究

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Title:	第一次波斯灣戰爭後中共軍事發展之研究
Other Titles:	China's military development after the first Persian gulf war
Authors:	唐鴻;Tang, Hung
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班王高成;Wang, Kao-cheng
Keywords:	軍事戰略;中國人民解放軍;兩岸關係;Military Strategy;People's Liberation Army;Cross-Strait Interactive Relations
Date:	2005
Issue Date:	2010-01-10 23:41:59 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	中國人民解放軍內部的軍事思想流派，長期以來一向以「人民戰爭」理論學派居主流地位。然而西元1991年由於伊拉克入侵科威特，美國為首的聯軍發起了”沙漠風暴”作戰行動，各種高科技武器與新戰法，讓整軍經武多年，並擁有八年兩伊戰爭實戰經驗的伊拉克軍隊潰不成軍，地面作戰甚至在短短一百小時左右結束。中共觀察美軍在第一次波斯灣戰爭中的作戰情況，發現高科技武器與新戰法，的確徹底的擊敗了奉行蘇聯「以量剋值，以量取勝」作戰方式的伊拉克軍，讓同樣師法蘇聯，擁有大量非高科技武器的中國人民解放軍高度震撼，致使江澤民在1993年提出「高技術條件下的局部戰爭」軍事理論，並開始改革解放軍的結構。而中共觀察1999年的科索沃戰爭（Kosovo War），更確立了「軍事事務革命」（Revolution in Military Affairs, RMA）的重要性，讓「高技術戰爭」理論學派，成為中共軍事思想的主流。中共軍事思想的改變，帶動整體軍隊建設的變革，經過將近十五年的理論磨合與實務執行，中共軍隊的改革落實，各軍種都有相當程度的現代化發展，特別是第二砲兵與海空軍部隊，更是改革的重心。經過多年發展，也漸漸形成戰力。中共軍事武力發展，對全世界的整個戰略形式，都產生巨大的影響，特別是台海地區，更由於中共自行發展或是對外購得高科技武器，特別是海空軍裝備，更是逐年快速成長，讓一向認為在海空軍關鍵性武器質量上佔有優勢的我國，逐漸消失這項優勢。中共軍力現代化，其中一項目標，就是在必要的時間，以武力統一台灣地區，解決所謂的”台灣問題”，因此中共軍事力量的轉變，直接衝擊中華民國的軍事對策與軍隊部署與戰略方針。本論文探討中共軍事思想現代化思維的演進，武器裝備發展的戰略軌跡，解放軍提昇高科技武器裝備概況，和總體軍事發展對於亞太地區安全與台海局勢的影響，最後分析未來可能發生的高科技台海戰爭，並思維我方的因應之道與提供具體建議。 The United States adopts the high-tech war method to win 1991 the Persian gulf war. The Communist Party of China''s military authority realizes the current of the war has already changed. The high technology is main trend of warlike future. The communist Party of China therefore develops the high-tech force quickly. The development of the Communist Party of China''s military strength that influence the East Asia situation especially in Taiwan Strait. The both parties of Taiwan Strait buy and developed the in great quantities advanced weapon. By doing so, in order to face the PRC’S military modernization and take Appropriate strategy to deal with, we have to assess the effects of PRC’S strategy changing, accurate analysis of PRC’S future military infrastructure, and PRC’S military environment analysis, such as, what is strength, weakness and what it’s risk and opportunity etc. The conclusion suggests that the final goal of reducing the PRC’S threats, deterring PRC’S military action against us will be based on our reason allocation of our defense resource. This thesis includes six chapters. The chapter one is introduction; the chapter two explores Modern and high-tech war of Persian gulf war(1991) and Kosovo(1999) and latest Persian gulf war(2003). The chapter three demonstrates the development and the renewal of the Communist Party of China military thought and the PRC Arm force current situation and future development. chapter four is the analysis of prospective war of Taiwan Strait and explore the appropriate strategy for our country’s military build up. The chapters six is the conclusion for providing some research suggestions for future policy decision reference.
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