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    題名: 中共「反介入戰略」中核動力潛艦的能力虛實
    其他題名: The actual status of nuclea-powered submarines capabilities in the PRC's anti-access strategies
    作者: 程盈彰;Cheng, Ying-chang
    貢獻者: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班
    曾復生
    關鍵詞: 戰略潛艇;反介入戰略;先制;嚇阻;Strategic submarine;Anti-access strategy;Preemptive;deterrence
    日期: 2009
    上傳時間: 2010-01-10 23:41:31 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 中共自建政至今,深刻體認到長年使用軍事戰略攻勢仍無法有效解決統一中華民國在台灣的根本原因,即是美國圍堵戰略上以絕對優勢的超強軍力介入所造成。並深知目前甚至可預見的將來,尚不具備足夠強大的常規軍力挑戰美國,以確保在台灣利益受到威脅時能穩操勝券。中共爲抗衡美國優勢地位的不對稱局勢,必須先期獲得有效行動自由的主動地位與嚇阻態勢,以影響美國決策軍力介入台海的「反介入戰略」思維發展,期能達成阻止美國部分或全部軍事行動的預期目標,同時達成自身在政治與軍事上的目標。
    近10年來,中共有目的地擁有一批「撒手鐧」武器(二砲、戰略潛艦、空天一體的作戰結合)。其中新一代戰略潛艦(093、094)所具備靜肅匿蹤、高效機動、遠程潛行、獨立作戰、高存活率、潛射核武、遠距精準打擊、第二擊核報復等多重優勢,已成為中共當前軍事實力下最佳核武威懾的利器與現代化「跨躍」發展的主力之一。尤其在面對美國強勢軍力「嚇阻」威脅下,中共「反介入戰略」的核動力潛艦能力虛實,將是威脅西太平洋防線上島嶼基地、航母戰鬥群等各式武力,甚至美國國土的最主要來源之一。並扮演極為重要的「不對稱」角色與反制「嚇阻」、突穿「圍堵」的最有效利器。
    而美國為因應未來「中國崛起」的海上強權勢力,以「先制」戰略部署態勢,更強化「第二島鏈」上「圍堵」防線的各項最先進打擊武力。包括以核動力潛艦強化嚇阻戰略的阻斷能力、確保戰略通路與行動自由、增駐部署關島等所採取的因應措施,以確立「嚇阻」理論下的「圍堵」戰略作為。
    美、「中」以台灣為核心關鍵的「反介入戰略」,已成為中共與美國發生衝突時所運用的主要策略,除影響美國的軍事行動和降低其效果,並將持續牽動美、「中」、台三方未來發展的主流趨勢。本論文藉由描述與分析中共「反介入戰略」的發展,觀察中共核動力潛艦戰略能力、美軍針對中共核動力潛艦的相應措施,探究中共「反介入戰略」中核動力潛艦的戰略能力虛實及可能運用方式,已對美國造成有效的嚇阻與反制。
    PRC has realized the primary reason why its long term military aggression failed to effectively solve the problem of reunifying Taiwan was the containment strategy carried out by supreme military power of the U.S. PRC also realizes that it will not have the military strength needed to challenge the U.S. in the foreseeable future as well as to secure its interests over Taiwan issues. In order to confront the dominating position of the U.S., PRC has to have the freedom of initiative and form effective deterrent posture as depicted in “anti-access strategy” in the initial stage. The “anti-access strategy” is developed in hope of both influencing US decision on whether to send military power into Taiwan straits and achieving its political as well as military goals.
    In the past 10 years, PRC has purposefully acquired some specialty weapons/units such as the second artillery, strategic submarine, and air-space joint operations. Particularly, the new generation strategic submarines have the multiple capabilities of silent running, high mobility, long distance underwater cruise, independent operations, high survivability, sub-launch nuclear weapons, long distance precision strike, and counter-strike with nuclear weapons. The new generation strategic submarines have become PRC''s best nuclear intimidator and the major “leap" in PRC''s force modernization development. Especially when confronting with the strong military power of the U.S., the real capabilities of PRC''s nuclear-powered submarines will play a critical role in PRC''s “anti-access strategy”. These submarines will present the major threats to the bases on the islands along the western Pacific line of defense, the aircraft-carrier combat groups, and even the US territory. They will also serve as the very effective and useful tools in countering deterrence and penetrating containment as well as play an important “asymmetric” role.
    To act in advance and prepare for the marine power of the "rising China”, the U.S. has adopted a “preemptive” strategic posture to strengthen the modem weapons for the “containment” forces on the second island chain defense line. Measures include enhancing the blocking capability of its deterrent strategy with nuclear-powered submarines, ensuring the safety of its strategic passageway and freedom of its action, and deploying more troops to Guam. All these are guided by the “deterrence” logics and to fortify the “containment”.
    The “anti-access strategy” has become the principle strategy that PRC would resort to when there is a conflict between the U.S. and PRC over Taiwan issues. The anti-access strategy would influence US military actions and mitigate the effects that US military could usually produce. Moreover, it would continue to influence the development of the relations among the U.S., PRC and Taiwan. This paper describes and analyzes the development of PRC''s“anti-access” strategy, examines the strategic capabilities of PRC''s nuclear-powered submarines and the counter measures that the U.S. has adopted regarding those submarines. It is concluded that the strategic capabilities and possible applications of PRC''s nuclear-powered submarines have formed effective deterrence and counterbalance in the confrontation with the U.S.
    顯示於類別:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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