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    題名: 臺灣政治發展與美中臺互動研究 : 以臺灣第十一任總統大選及其影響為例
    其他題名: A research on Taiwan politics evolvement and US -Sino-Taiwan trilateral terplay, based on the Taiwan's 11th presidential election.
    台灣政治發展與美中台互動研究 : 以台灣第十一任總統大選及其影響為例
    作者: 曲孟宣;Chu, Meng-hsuan
    貢獻者: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班
    王高成;Wang, Kao-cheng
    關鍵詞: 民主化;總統選舉;台灣意識;公民投票;危機;democratization;presidential election;Taiwan realizes;referendum;crisis
    日期: 2006
    上傳時間: 2010-01-10 23:41:28 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 1949年5月19日,台灣進入軍事戒嚴時期且戒嚴延續了38年之久,直到1987年才解除,成為世界實施最久的戒嚴令。1990年3月21日,國民大會正式選出李登輝為總統,其後,公職人員與民意代表選舉之普遍化與修憲等改革工作陸續展開。而1996年總統直選,更象徵人民意志由下而上的徹底貫徹,也是台灣民主化歷史過程中最重要的政治工程,台灣民主政治的發展從此進入一個新階段。隨著民主化的發展對於兩岸的未來,台灣也開始產生除統一外的其他選項。而這些選項何者最能符合台灣人民的利益,則是需要我們深入探討的。

    本論文以台灣第十一任總統大選時,美中台三方因公投、制憲等議題所產生之互動為研究重點。過多的政治口號與動作,讓台灣被認為是美中台三方中較不穩定的一邊,也使得華府憂心將被迫捲入台海的軍事衝突之中。為維護華府自身之權益,不得不將台灣的紅線清楚的畫出來,對台灣的態度也愈發強硬。而北京近年來綜合國力不斷提升,對解決台灣問題也開始更加有信心。

    2004年11月14日,胡錦濤在會見巴西華人華僑時表示「中國要強盛,中華民族要振興,第一要發展,第二要統一。」這同以往北京對於促統持求急求快的心態已有所不同,說明其最重視的還是抓住機遇發展自己,台灣問題最終要靠發展來解決。同時北京也了解到「通往台北最近的道路是經由華盛頓」。

    當前,台灣最重要的外交工作就是台美關係之修補,如何將彼此的利益相互結合將是當前刻不容緩的事。同時,更需要理性思考兩岸關係的未來,在民主化的體制下,政府的兩岸政策需有促進兩岸良性互動,更要有建構雙方正常化關係的深層意涵,才能真正符合台灣人民的利益。
    On 20 May 1949, Chiang Kai-shek''s Kuomintang (KMT) proclaimed martial law in Taiwan throughout 38 years until 1987, which is the longest in the modern history. The National Assembly elected Lee Teng-hui as the ROC president on March 21, 1990. Since then embarked a series of reformative efforts including the popularization of direct election of public servants and constitutional amendments. The first direct election of the country’s president in 1996 was a carryout of people’s will, and one of the most important political developments in the history of Taiwan’s democratization as it led the country’s democratic politics into a new phase.

    As the democratization posed influence on cross-strait relations, options for future cross-strait situation other than unification emerged in Taiwan, and which option ensures the interest of Taiwan awaits further exploration. This dissertation explores the US-Sino-Taiwan trilateral interplay regarding issues of referendum and constitution during the 11th presidential election in Taiwan. Being rife with political slogans and movements, Taiwan has long been deemed as the unreliable factor in the trilateral relations. The unreliability has caused Washington to worry about being drawn into cross-strait wars and forced it to adopt a tougher stance on Taiwan. On the other hand, the rising of Beijing’s power in various dimensions helped the government boost its confidence in solving the Taiwan problem. On November 14, 2000, Chinese President Hu Jintao said while meeting overseas Chinese in Brazil that “For China to grow stronger and Chinese people to regain prosperity, first we need development and then unification.” Hu’s remarks contradict with Beijing’s previous eagerness for a quick unification, and illustrate its shifting the focus to develop itself while solving the Taiwan problem through development. At the same time, Beijing also comes to understand that “the closest path to Taipei is through Washington.”

    Currently, the most diplomatic work for Taiwan is the repair of US-Taiwan relations. Seeking our mutual interests with the US demands immediate attention. In the meantime, Taiwan should reflect on future cross-strait relations. To ensure the biggest national interest for Taiwan under the democratic system, Taiwan’s cross-strait policy needs to address the implementation of a peaceful and stable framework for cross-strait interaction and normalization of cross-strait relations.
    顯示於類別:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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