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    Title: 中共對臺心理威懾戰略轉變的研究(1995~2005)
    Other Titles: China's psychological detrrente strategies conversion toward Taiwan (1995~2005)
    中共對台心理威懾戰略轉變的研究(1995~2005)
    Authors: 胡正宇;Hu, Cheng-yu
    Contributors: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
    施正權;Shih, Cheng-chuan
    Keywords: 嚇阻;威懾;心理威懾戰略;Detrrente;Psychological Detrrente Strategies
    Date: 2006
    Issue Date: 2010-01-10 23:41:25 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 中共自建政以來,歷屆執政者只要談到兩岸問題,均會對各國元首或媒體記者們宣稱「絕不放棄武力犯台」,惟自2003年12月7日中共國務院總理溫家寶在拜會聯合國秘書長安南(Kofi A. Annan)時強調,「只要還有一線希望,中國政府不會放棄和平解決台灣問題」,使個人深覺中共對台的心理威懾戰略是否已經有所轉變。
    本研究主要以政治、經濟、外交、軍事等四個面向來探討中共對台心理威懾戰略是否已與先前有所不同。
    研究發現中共對台的各項政策、方式因當時的時空背景環境不同而有所轉變,不論是由硬轉向軟,抑或是對象由政府轉向人民,均有其政策的延續性;此外,中共對台心理威懾的主要目的已由「統一中國」轉變為「禁絕台獨」,以達成其「防獨優於促統」的目的。
    After People Republic of China established the reins of government, every prime minister claimed “Never giving up to invade Taiwan with force.” However, on December 7th, 2003, the prime minister of China, Wen Ja-Bow emphasized on “not giving up to solve Taiwan problem peacefully” while met the First Secretary of U.N., Kofi A. Annan. On my opinion, it is possible that China’s Taiwan strategy “psychical detrrente” might be changed.
    The purpose of this study is to analyze if the China’s Taiwan strategy “psychical detrrente” is changed politically, economically, diplomatically, and martially.
    The study figured out that China had modified their Taiwan strategies continually: from hardly to softly, and from toward government to people. In addition, the purpose of China’s psychical threatening, “consolidation of China” was turned to “forbiddance of Taiwan independence.” Now their aim was forbidding independence, prior to promoting consolidation.
    Appears in Collections:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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