| Abstract: | 作者以權力轉移理論為研究途徑，探討印度自1991年經濟改革，綜合國力提升之後，美國為了防止印度在未來對其構成挑戰，並企圖拉攏印度以防範更具威脅性的中國所造出的政策回應。在說明了權力轉移理論自冷戰到後冷戰時期的演變過程之後，作者對印度進行了驗證，可分成以下三部分加以說明。
首先，在蘇聯解體之後，國際體系從兩極體系轉變成杭亭頓所謂的「單-多極體系」。因美國在後冷戰時的國力相對於其它國家具有相當大的優勢，所以處於權力金字塔的頂端。其次，印度的人口在2006年已超過11億人，而且專家預測其人口總數將在2045年超越中國，成為全球人口最多的國家。雖然印度在人口數量上占有優勢，但其人口素質極需改善。此外，印度的經濟成長率在進入21世紀後有明顯提升，其經濟規模也不斷擴大，但是印度也遭遇許多瓶頸。在降低財政赤字、放寬勞工法規、吸引外國直接投資、改善農業生產率和加速基礎建設上，印度政府都面臨了巨大的挑戰。另外，印度因國內族群、語言、宗教和政黨多元化發展的原故，國內局勢並不穩定。印度教與伊斯蘭教之間的對立、納薩爾分子對印度當局的威脅、國內各政黨立場的歧異都對印度尋求一個穩定的環境以發展經濟的努力造成不利影響。第三，為了達成上述美國所追求的目標，美國和印度在軍事、民用核子、經濟領域展開合作，並對印度於1998年所進行的核子試爆和2002年印巴的軍事對峙進行干預。
美國現階段的目標是拉攏印度這個次要敵人以打擊主要敵人—中國，所以必須對其進行滿意度的經濟。然而，印度在發展經濟的前提下並無意願成為美國圍堵中國的馬前卒，所以美印關係的前景應該是先追求共同發展，其次才是處理中國崛起的問題。
The author exploits Power Transition Theory as the research approach to explore how the United States responds to India’s rise in order to prevent its challenge to American preeminence in the future and to guard against threatening China with India by meeting the latter’s needs. The thesis can be categorized into three parts for further explanation.
Firstly, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the international system has transformed from bipolar system during the Cold War era into uni-multipolar system. Because of the relative advantage of American national strength during the post-Cold War period, the US now is placed at the peak of the power pyramid. Secondly, the population in India had exceeded 1.1 billion in 2006, and experts extrapolate that in 2045 India will surpass China as the most populous country in the world. Besides, since India entered 21st century, its economic growth rates have manifestly increased and its scale has been expanding. But it also encountered numerous bottlenecks. In the aspects of lowering fiscal deficit, loosening labor law, attracting foreign direct investment, and improving infrastructure, Indian government faces various challenges. Additionally, due to the multiple developments of ethnic groups, languages, religions and political parties, the domestic situation in India has not been stable for a long time. The confrontation of Hinduism and Islam and the menace brought about by Naxalists to government threaten Indians’ efforts for economic growth. Thirdly, to attain the two objectives, the US cooperates with India on military, civilian nuclear and economic fields. The prospects of US-Indian relations would be to pursue mutual development and then to address the threats deriving from the rise of China. |
