| Abstract: | 本文在概要說明權力轉移理論的發展後，主要從區域權力「結構」、強權的權力發展「動態」，及維護區域秩序的管理「政策」這三大面向，分析探討東北亞安全戰略關係的演變。首先，在「結構」方面。2001 年至2006 年期間，美國在「911 事件」後，接連展開戰爭且取勝，卻陷入後續戰區重建泥沼，經濟成本與兵力的牽制，加上國際社會批判，對美國國際地位與影響力產生不利影響；中國維持高經濟成長，並擴充現代化軍事裝備，且涵養國際影響力，崛起已成事實；日本藉美大舉反恐之際取得強力支持，一面修改法律鬆綁對外行動限制，一面擴充強化軍備以肩負區域安全重責。
其次，權力「動態」與戰略思考方面。由於中國崛起已逐漸撼動美國的影響力，且將對區域強權日本形成權力超越，使得區域權力結構面臨轉型。因此美、日攜手合作，強化區域安全保障；同時，美日也先後對中國採行友好交往的外交政策。美日企圖以軟硬兼施的手段，促進中國融入現行國際秩序並負起大國責任，減少中國崛起帶來的威脅；中國在崛起關鍵時期，深知必須維護和平穩定的崛起環境，在推行國內改革之外，對外則採行睦鄰友好政策穩定鄰邦、培植影響力。美日中三方既深化彼此合作關係，但不忘發展軍事作為後盾。東北亞安全戰略關係就在這種區域權力結構轉型之際，顯得更複雜而變化迅速。
最後，在驗證「政策」方面。中、日東海領土與能源開發爭議未有具體協商成果，是區域內潛在衝突危機。美國雖支持日本，但不敢貿然介入自找麻煩；台海問題方面，美中日三國有所共識，即「維持現狀」。然一旦台海有事，可能引發大戰、改變區域戰略態勢，三國皆不敢掉以輕心，持續整軍經武研擬對策以為因應；在朝核問題上，由於牽動多方敏感神經，六方會談仍持續進行，但中國居中協調的影響力受到質疑，美國已嘗試恢復對朝雙邊協商作為六方會談的輔助，情勢應不致失控；在結盟的管理上，美日聯盟、中國對外拉攏盟邦，皆隱含抗衡之意，唯東亞區域經濟合作組織的籌建，對區域整合與深化合作別具意義，但諸多限制與挑戰尚待克服。
美國身為國際政治領導者，其支配力與影響力已不若冷戰時期，面對非傳統安全問題嚴峻的挑戰，及中國此新興強權在東北亞區域的崛起，美國在處理全球事務備多力分的情況下，目前最主要的目標是聯合日本遏制中國的勢力外擴。然而，日本近年來經濟逐漸恢復榮景，又精進武裝力量、放寬行動限制的發展趨勢下，在美國支持下的「日本再興」，無疑地讓東北亞區域秩序發展又增添變數。
To analyze and comment on the evolution of strategic relations in Northeast Asia, the thesis focuses on three aspects: regional power structure, dynamics of power and strategic thinking of Great power, and the management policy for preserving regional order. First of all, following the ‘911 incident’in 2001, the U.S.A launched the war and declared victory in succession. However, through 2006, the economic cost, the pinning down of troops and the criticism of the international community has resulted in unfavorable effects on the international status and influence of U.S.A. Meanwhile, China maintains a
high economic development rate, expands the modernization of its military, and improves its international
influence. Furthermore, Japan makes use of the fact of ‘the rise of China’ to gain more support from U.S.A., revises the law to lessen restrictions on external action, and strengthens its military arms with the justification of needing to bear the security of the area more responsibly.
Second, because the rise of China has already shaken American influence, and China will overtake Japan as the Great power in this region, transitions in the regional power structure have to be faced. Therefore, the U.S.A. and Japan cooperate in strengthening regional security, while successively adopting a foreign policy of friendly association with China, too. To these ends, the U.S.A. and Japan have attempted to promote China into the current corporate international order, encouraging China to shoulder the responsibility of being a major world power; thereby reducing the threat that a rising China presents.
For its part China, in a key period of rise, knows very well that it must safeguard the environment of its steady and peaceful rise, accept pursuing domestic reform, adopt a friendly diplomatic policy to stabilize neighboring countries, and cultivate influence externally.
Third, though the U.S.A. hesitates to get involved in the Sino-Japanese East China Sea dispute, to ''maintain peace and stability '' is a common understanding on the question of the Taiwan Straits. On the North Korean Nuclear Issue, six-party talks still go on continuously so that the situation does not out of control. In alliances management, preparation for the establishment of a regional Economic Cooperation Organization of East Asia would be meaningful but a great deal of restrictions and challenges are waiting to be overcome. Finally, the U.S.A’s present goal to cooperate with Japan to prevent China’s expansion of force could be complicated by Japan’s own resumption of economical growth in recent years and the
strengthening of the armed forces. Japan’s ‘re-rise'' definitely adds parameters to the regional order of
Northeast Asia. |
