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    题名: 中共核動力潛艦的戰略性能力研究
    其它题名: A study on the strategic capability by nuclear submarine of mainland China
    作者: 王彥傑;Wang, Yen-chieh
    贡献者: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班
    曾復生
    关键词: 核潛;威懾戰略;海洋戰略;Nuclear Submarine;Strategic Deterrence;ocean strategy
    日期: 2008
    上传时间: 2010-01-10 23:38:57 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 在經濟快速發展、資源需求快速增加的刺激下,海洋戰略已成為中共不得不正視的問題。但面對美國絕對優勢的超強圍堵勢力,中共亟需隨時能突破島鏈封鎖、嚇阻美航母艦隊、甚至威脅美國本土的有效威懾力量。而核潛所具備的機動、匿蹤、航程遠、潛航時間長、存活率高,以及潛射核武所具有強大核威懾與核反擊能力,正符合其軍事思想與國防戰略需求,也因此,使核潛成為中共積極發展的最佳戰略武器之一。
    中共核潛威懾戰略,係在以弱擊強、以劣勝優、以小博大之不對稱戰略與人民戰爭思維中,運用虛實真假、忽隱忽現的奇正手段與宣傳技巧,營造出高深莫測之態勢,對敵心理形成影響,從而擴大威懾力量。在面對與美國之極不對稱戰略態勢下,中共企圖利用核潛的戰略威懾能力形成局部對稱,雖未必能達遏制美軍干預的目的,但確實將影響美國出兵介入台海問題的決策過程。
    此外,中國近代飽受外國勢力侵略與欺凌,造成普遍媚外、懼外心態,民族自信心嚴重喪失,但中共從早期的兩彈一星,到今日的戰略核潛與反衛星武器,不斷在針對性之戰略規劃下,發展關鍵武力,姑不論其所達成之實質戰力如何,但其所展現之存在事實,不但對外成功塑造中國崛起的形象,對內亦使其民族自信重新抬頭,共軍在未來勢將更敢於面對外軍的威脅和挑戰。本論文藉由觀察中共核潛發展方向,透過與相關國家戰力對比,呈現其所面臨威脅與挑戰,從而探究其所能發揮之戰略威懾能力虛實及可能之運用手段,並期藉此能讓外界對中共核潛發展有更客觀的認識與瞭解。
    Under the stimulation of fast economic development and resource requirement, ocean strategy has become a problem that Mainland China has to face up to. However, facing with the super containment power of US with absolute advantage, what Mainland China needs most is effective deterrent force that can breakthrough the chain island blockade, deter the US aircraft carrier fleet and even it can threaten the native land of US. Nuclear submarine is mobile, it can hide with long voyage capability and a high survival rate and the submerged shooting of nuclear weapons possess strong nuclear intimidation and nuclear counter attack ability. All these conform to its military thinking and national defense strategic requirement. Because of this, nuclear submarine becomes one of the best strategic weapons that Mainland China is actively developing.
    The deterrent strategy of nuclear submarine of Mainland China is based on the thinking of using weaker force to attack stronger foes, utilizing inferior situation to win over advantageous situation and the asymmetrical strategy of using small power against big and people’s war. They will use false or true and flickering surprising method and publicity skill to build up an unfathomable situation. This can form an influence on the psychology of the enemy thereby expanding the intimidation power. When facing with extreme asymmetrical strategic situation with US, Mainland China attempts to make use of the strategic intimidation capability of nuclear submarine to form a partial symmetry. Although this may not be able to contain the purpose of intervention by the US force, yet this will actually affect the course of decision of dispatching troops by US to intervene in the Taiwan strait problem.
    Furthermore, in recent past China was invaded and insulted by foreign powers resulting a universal fawning on foreign powers and fear of foreign power and the self confidence of the people suffered a severe loss. However, from nuclear bombs, missiles and satellites in the early stage till the strategic nuclear submarine and anti-satellite weapons, Mainland China continues to develop its key force under a strategic planning with aim. No matter what is the achievement of its substantial battle force, yet the unfolded existed fact has successfully molded the image of sudden rise of China to outside and internally the self confidence of their people is recovered. In the future, the Mainland China military force will be more daring to face with threats and challenge from foreign military force. Through observation on the development direction of nuclear submarine of Mainland China and by comparing with relevant countries, this essay will reveal the threats and challenge that Mainland China is facing. In so doing, this essay can explore the true or false of the strategic intimidation capability that Mainland China can bring this into full play and the methods that they may use. Moreover, based on this, the outside sector can have more objective recognition and understanding on the development of nuclear submarine of Mainland China.
    显示于类别:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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