台灣與兩岸關係的發展自冷戰結束後一直成為國際矚目的焦點，本論文藉由國家認同來分評估台灣的未來。不僅透過台灣國家認同發展的歷史，了解台灣人民對國家認同複雜的情結與分裂的原因。同時，分別藉由政治、經濟、社會與文化四層面來釐清內部國家認同的面貎與趨勢後，再分析美國與中共對外部認同的影響，藉由建構主義結合內外部認同，找出當前國家認同的發展的傾向與危機，呈現出台灣當前戰略決策的基礎（環境）。最後，以此基礎分別評估目前兩岸與台灣未來的三大政治主張傾向－一個中國、統合論與兩國論傾向。經過戰略的評估－兩岸接受度、國家認同因素及政經考量等，以統合論為台灣當前較佳的戰略的選擇。 Taiwan or Cross-Strait relationship has become one of important international issues since the end of cold war. In order to explore the possibilities of Taiwan’s Future, it is important to analyze the complex about national identity in Taiwan. National identity in Taiwan has been lead to two different ways – Taiwan and China identity. This study is exploring the history of national identity in Taiwan to get rough sketch of its development. Then, from the political, economic, social and culture aspects, we could get the long development trend of inner national identity in Taiwan. In addition, we get the long development trend of outer national identity from the analysis of the United States and PRC. This study shows that it is lead to Taiwan identity in the inner national identity aspect, but meanwhile China identity in the outer national identity. With this result, we access three different political assumptions of Taiwan’s Future – pro-One China (like one coutry and two systems), pro-Functionalisms (like confederation), and pro-Two countries (like one China and one Taiwan). With conclusion, Functionalism or confederations is the best Strategic Choice.