湄公河管理典則的建立與變遷(1957-2002)

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Title:	湄公河管理典則的建立與變遷(1957-2002)
Other Titles:	The establishment and change of the management regime of Mekong River
Authors:	王鎮宇;Wang, Chen-yu
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班蔡政文;Tsai, Cheng-wen
Keywords:	湄公河委員會;國際典則;利益;認知;權力;Mekong River Commission;international regime;interest;cognition;power
Date:	2007
Issue Date:	2010-01-10 23:38:39 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	基於對資源競爭與其衍生的國際衝突的重視，以及湄公河流域未來的發展趨勢對該區域政經局勢的影響，本文焦點著重於以湄公河委員會（Mekong River Commission, MRC）為主的湄公河管理典則（regime）的演變過程以及影響成因。藉由應用國際關係中國際典則（international regime）理論的三個學派—利益、認知、權力（interest, cognition, power）—之論述，本文試圖找出對典則演進最具解釋力的學派，以及存在於資源領域的典則變遷與國際衝突間的可能連結。在分析了湄公典則三個時期（湄公委員會/MC時期，1957-1975；臨時湄公委員會/IMC時期，1978-1991；湄公河委員會/MRC時期，1995以後）的演變過程後，得到的實務面與理論面的觀點如下：實務面上，(1)湄公典則近四十年來運作的成效，決定於有無霸權支持、地緣政治紛亂與否、以及參與者相對利益考量的高低等因素；(2)湄公典則的未來發展利基，應在推動「永續發展」相關議題上，然因為泰國制定完整用水規範的意願不高，中國犧牲雲南水力發展的可能性不大，以及開放政治空間非沿岸國國家政策的優先目標，湄公典則未來的運作成效將相對受限。至於理論層面，研究發現(1)權力學派對典則變遷的過程最具解釋力，但在典則的延續面上解釋力則相對不足；(2)不同因素間的互動會影響典則的穩定性，但與國際衝突間不存在明確的關連；(3)典則的建立與變遷、國際組織與會員國的關係、大國與小國的互動、以及利益與認知因素間，存在若干互動趨勢。 Motivated by the concern about resource-related conflicts and the importance of power competition in the basin of Mekong River, this article focuses on the evolution of Mekong River Commission, on which the Mekong regime has been based, and the factors accounting for the regime dynamics. Through the application of interest-, cognition-, and power-based schools of international regime, this article tries to find out which school accounts most for the Mekong regime and whether there exists any relations between regime change and international conflict. After analyzing Mekong regime in three periods(MC,1957-1975; IMC, 1978-1991; MRC, 1995~), we find out: 1. practically, (1)regime effects depend on support from hegemony, geopolitical stability, and low relative-gains concern; (2)the niche of Mekong regime in the future is its promotion of “sustainable development,” but its effectiveness will be limited by both Thailand and China’s unwillingness to cooperate and compressed political space for civil society in participating countries. 2. theoretically, (1)power-based school accounts most for regime dynamics, but is relatively weak in explaining regime maintenance; (2)interactions between different factors may set regime unstable, but have no explicit connections with international conflicts; (3)some trends exist in the following fields: establishment and change of regime, relations between IGOs and their participants, interactions between strong actors and weak ones, and relations between interest- and cognition-based factors.
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