| 摘要: | 2006年的國際安全環境，基本上是以全球化、相互合作為主流發展趨勢。然而，國與國間因島嶼主權歸屬、海洋專屬經濟區重疊、海洋資源開發及確保海上交通線所引發的衝突與紛爭越演越烈，對區域的和平與穩定帶來危機與挑戰。尤自1994年《聯合國國際海洋法公約》生效後，海洋意識正不斷的提升，使得原本長期存在的海洋權益與領土主權爭議問題更加突顯，成為地區重要的安全議題。
本文試圖從東北亞地區「藍色國土」爭奪的歷史背景與所發生的事實，找出爭端問題的焦點與背後的戰略意涵，並以新現實主義的觀點「權力平衡」、「利益」、「安全」來檢視地區各行為體的戰略利益，探究「藍色國土」爭奪對東北亞區域安全的影響，進而預測其後續的發展與走向，並提出台灣應有之作為與建議，以提供政府制訂政策及後續研究之參據。
東北亞各國之間的戰略關係存在著「既競爭又合作」的態勢。雖然地區政經關係在冷戰結束後已逐漸獲得改善，惟潛在性的衝突仍始終存在。未來包括海洋資源爭奪、海域劃界與島嶼主權等「藍色國土」爭奪問題，在缺乏有效的安全機制約束下，區域各國的「安全困境」將繼續存在並引發衝突危機，影響區域安全。此外，區域「權力平衡」的戰略關係，在面對中共的崛起、南韓的戰略選擇、及2009年後「藍色國土」爭奪所引發的衝突，將威脅美國所建構的區域國際關係格局，影響美國在地區的利益與戰略佈局。
In 2006, the main stream of the international security environment was towards globalization and cooperation. However, the regional peace and stability were facing more crisises and challenges due to rising conflicts and disputes over issues such as offshore islands sovereignty, overlaping Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), marine resource development, and Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC). After the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) had come into force in 1994, the consciousness of sea kept elevating and therefore surfaced the long-standing disputes over martitime interests and territorial sovereignty which turned out to be the most important security issues of the region.
The purposes of this article are to find out the focuses of those issues and their strategic implications based on the historical background and facts of the “Maritime Territory” contention in Northeast Asia; to review strategic interests of each actor in the region in terms of “balance of power,” “interests,” and “security” from a Neorealist perspective; to study the “Maritime Territory” contention’s impacts on Northeast Asia security; and to predict the follow-on development and trend as well as to propose recommendations to Taiwan government as a reference for policy-making and future studies.
The strategic relations between Northest Asian countries are both “competitive” and “cooperative.” Although political and economic relations has been improved in the region since the end of the Cold War, the possibilities of conflict still exist. Without proper security mechanism, countries in the region will still be facing the existing “Security Dilemma” which creates future conflicts on “Maritime Territory” issues such as marine resource contention, EEZ definition, and offshore island sovereignty. In addition, considering the rise of China, Korea’s strategic choices, and possible “Maritime Territory” conflicts beyond 2009, the “Balance of Power” will pose a threat to the U.S.-built international relation framework in the region and therefore affect U.S. interests and strategic plan in this region. |
