兩岸互動策略分析 : 賽局理論之應用

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Title:	兩岸互動策略分析 : 賽局理論之應用
Other Titles:	The analysis of interaction strategy cross the Taiwan strait : by utilization of game theory
Authors:	李佩忠;Lee, Pai-chung
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班王高成;Wang, Kao-cheng
Keywords:	國際關係;兩岸關係;談判;賽局理論;International relation;Cross-Strait relation;Negotiation;Game Theory
Date:	2006
Issue Date:	2010-01-10 23:38:06 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	兩岸關係的變化，在政黨輪替後有了不同的發展，當我們從歷史的角度來觀察兩岸關係時，我們發現兩岸互動在和緩及緊張間擺盪，似乎有其一定的規律；當兩岸間互動較為和緩時，則展開各種型式的談判協商，反之，則升高各種文攻、武嚇的緊張關係，而這些似乎都與雙方政府所面臨的內、外環境息息相關。在社會科學的研究方法論的爭論中，傳統主義與科學行為主義的最大分野，在於運用不同的方法及途徑來對社會現象作出解釋，賽局理論是一種形式邏輯，其運用符號及類似自然科學的形式邏輯對社會現象做出解釋，是使社會科學研究邁向客觀分析的指標，因此，將賽局理論用於兩岸關係的解釋，可提供另一個觀察兩岸關係的面向，同時，也提供了一個不同的平台，用以對兩岸未來提供新的思維；當我們透過不同的賽局模型來對兩岸關係進行觀察時，便希望能運用兩岸雙方對期望值的偏好，及雙方可能產生的型態，來對兩岸關係的變化作出解釋，並期待從其中找出解決兩岸關係的途徑。本文從歷史的觀察角度出發，藉由雙方內、外環境的觀察，運用不同的賽局模型加以分析，得出雙方互動的規律，再以近年來雙方較為和緩及緊繃時期的觀察，來對兩岸關係作一個合理的分析，同時，藉由行為科學的高度邏輯來對兩岸未來互動的方向，提出改善的看法及政策建議，期使兩岸關係能朝向對民眾有利的方向前進。 Abstract: Cross-Strait relations have made some changes after Administration transition from KMT to DPP. If we view the issue of cross-Strait relations from a historical perspective, we found that it seems to have an invisible pattern in between-this pattern swings between moderate to tension. 月When it comes to moderate period, Administrations cross-Strait hold all sorts of negotiation and interaction; on the other hand, in tension period, various war-threatening and diplomatic-attack happen as substitution. All of this seems to be related to the domestic and external environment of the both Governments. An important difference between traditionalism and science behaviorism in the research of social science is that they explain the social phenomenon by using of different method and route. Game Theory is a formal logic. It explains social phenomenon through symbol and a formal logic that is similar to physical science; it is an index of objective analysis for research of social science. Therefore, by using of Game Theory to explain cross-Strait relations, we found that it provides an additional perspective in this relation. Also, it provides a different platform to consider the future of the cross-Strait relations as well. We expect to find out solutions and explanation of the various relations of the cross-Strait through using of different game- models, and to observe the preferred expected value of Administrations cross-Strait, and possible situation/ condition that might be resulted in. This dissertation aimed to find out the pattern of the cross-Strait interaction and observing it through the analysis of Game-Models on the perspective of its past history on domestic and external environment; and comes out a reasonable analysis of the relations from the recent years’ observation in moderate and tension period. We expect that this dissertation can be of help to lead to the advantage side to the people cross-Strait by using higher logic in the behavioral science to simulating future interaction of the cross-Strait and to offering some improvement ideas and effective policy suggestions.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of International Affairs And Strategic Studies] Thesis

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